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IMF: Most Commodity Prices To Fall In 2012

--IMF: Most commodity prices to fall in 2012; oil is exception

--IMF: 'Non-oil commodities' to be hurt by ample supply, weak demand

--Even with expectation for oil prices to stay elevated, IMF's oil-price outlook is lowered to $99/bbl from $100/bbl

By Dan Strumpf

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The prices of most commodities will continue to fall in 2012, but oil prices are expected to stay elevated due to fears of supply disruptions, the International Monetary Fund said in its outlook on the global economy.

The IMF said it expects a combination of improving supply and slowing global demand to cause the prices of "non-oil commodities" to fall by 14% this year.

"In the near term, the risks to prices are to the downside for most of these commodities," according to the IMF's World Economic Outlook released Tuesday morning.

The IMF singled out oil prices as the likely exception, the IMF said, pointing to geopolitical risks. Still, the body trimmed its 2012 oil-price estimate to $ 99 a barrel from its $100-a-barrel forecast issued in September.

The IMF said the global economy remains threatened by the euro zone's debt crisis and strains elsewhere. Global output is expected to expand 3.25% this year, a downward revision of about 0.75 percentage point, the IMF said.

"Financial conditions have deteriorated, growth prospects have dimmed, and downside risks have escalated," the IMF said.

Commodity prices broadly fell in 2011 as the shaky global economy dented demand. Oil prices, however, proved to be an exception, largely due to supply disruptions in Libya and worries about Iran--even in the face of weak demand.

Such supply worries are likely to buffet the market for some time in 2012, the IMF said.

"Geopolitical risks to oil prices have risen again," it said.

-By Dan Strumpf, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2818; dan.strumpf@dowjones.com

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