ILIU: Q2 2012 Results - Analyst Blog

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ILIU: Q2 2012 Results


By Brian Marckx, CFA

Interleukin Genetics ( ILIU ) reported financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2012 on August 14th.  Top and bottom line results were very much in-line with our numbers, with revenue coming in a hair below our estimate but net income beating on better gross margin and lower than modeled operating expenses.   

On the operational side, the big news, which came just days prior to the earnings release, is that top-line data from the PST study is positive.  The next step, which is being driven by U of M, is to have the full data published.  In the meantime, Interleukin will work with their commercialization partner Delta Dental to finalize their business relationship and plan relative to commercialization and reimbursement of the PST test.  Management noted on the call that Delta is very excited about the possibilities for the PST test and remains very much behind it.  As a reminder, Delta injected $3 million of capital into ILIU in late June, which we think is an obvious vote of confidence for the opportunity that the PST test holds.    

Q2 Results

Revenue

Q2 revenue of $799k was flat yoy and just missed our $829k estimate.  We had previously modeled genetic testing revenue to grow sequentially throughout the remainder of 2012 based on the assumption that ILIU continues to see tangible traction in scoring corporate customers for its weight management test.  We now think that's less likely and have trimmed our revenue estimates for Q3 and Q4.  Management noted on the call that without additional clinical data to support a robust manuscript, a peer-reviewed publication of WM test data is not likely to happen - which, as noted in the past, was expected to help drive additional interest in the test from corporate customers (i.e. - weight loss clinics).  With ILIU's attention now clearly focused on the PST test (which is slated as the long-term driver of revenue), the WM test is now back-burner.  Nonetheless, we still model single-digit revenue growth in 2012 and a much steeper ramp in 2013 when we think the PST test could launch.

GM / Operating Expenses / EPS

GM was 50.8% versus our 47% estimate.  We continue to model full-year GM of about 50%.  Management continues to do a good job with managing expenses.  Operating expenses were just $1.49 million, down $89k sequentially (despite an 18% increase in sales from Q1) and well below our $1.61 million estimate.  Net loss and EPS were $1.23 million and ($0.03) compared to our $1.35 million and ($0.03) estimates.  

Cash

The other big news, aside from the PST test results, was that ILIU raised $3 million (gross, $2.7 million net) in financing in late June from the sale of convertible preferred stock (see our Investor Note below) to Delta Dental and extended the maturity of the Pyxis credit line from June 30, 2012 to November 30, 2012.

Cash used in operations in Q2 was $1.2 million, up from $999k in Q1.  Cash balance at the end of Q2 was $3.8 million, which includes the $3 million net from the preferred sale and the final $1.3 million draw on the Pyxis credit line.  ILIU notes that they believe they have enough cash to fund operations until January 2013 assuming they can continue to extend the maturity date of Pyxis line.  ILIU has been successful in extending the maturity date several times since the original maturity in August 2008.  

 

OUTLOOK / RECOMMENDATION

Other than the above noted updates to revenue in the second half of 2012, our model remains largely unchanged following Q2 results.  We continue to model only modest revenue growth until after substantial commercialization of the PST test.  We look for revenue and EPS of $2.94 million / ($0.13) and $7.46 million / ($0.05) in 2012 and 2013, respectively.  We are maintaining our $1.30 price target and Outperform rating.

 
Please visit scr.zacks.com to access a free copy of the full ILIU research report.


 
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.



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