The gold market is the epitome of human psychosis.*
On one hand, there's the anti-gold camp that have utter disdain
for precious metals 24 hours a day, eight days a week. On the other
hand, there are the survivalist types, general goldbugs, and
anti-Fed clan who live, breath, and eat gold at any price.
Together, both groups are a wonderful psychotic mix in the ever
confused and manipulated (per the conspiracists) gold market. It's
the perfect recipe for the opportunistic gold trader.
Pass or Flunk? Ron Grades a $1.2 Million
Finding sentiment extremes (bullish or bearish) and technicals
is one way to print money in the psychotic gold market.
Our recent video titled "
Why we were
bullish on gold when everyone else was bearish
" shows how we were able to bag a 66% GLD call options trade
earlier this year. This particular GLD trade took several weeks to
develop and was given in a 12/20/13 alert via our Weekly Picks.
From mid-April to June 2, precious metals and related assets
weren't very good performers. Silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) lost 4.5%, gold
(NYSEARCA:GLD) fell 4.6%, and large-cap miners (NYSEARCA:GDX) were
And without too much surprise, the banging of pots and pans to
sell, to short, or to avoid everything gold filled up the airwaves.
Here's just a tiny sample of the negative headlines:
"Why I Still Hate Gold" - James K. Glassman, Kiplinger, 6/4/14
"Pisani: Gold Can't Get Traction" - NBC News, 6/4/14
"Kiss Gold Market Good-Bye" - Bloomberg, 6/4/14
"Gold Vulnerable to Manipulative Selloff in June" - Max Keiser,
"Gold Miners Fail to Launch" - Forbes, 5/14/14
"Barrick Gold Downgraded to Strong Sell" - Zacks Equity Research,
"Goldman Stands by $1,050 Gold Target on Outlook for Recovery" -
Besides being dead wrong, all of these headlines are a testament
to the kind of sentiment extremes that consistently pervade the
gold marketplace. It oozes from bearish to bullish and back in no
time. In early June, it was just the kind of overly bearish
sentiment that has given legs to the latest thunderous move in
precious metals and mining stocks.
While all of these other sources pooh-poohing on precious metals
and miners, we told readers via our timestamped Weekly ETF Picks on
"When sentiment extremes are this bearish, more often than
not it signals a reversal turning point and a buying opportunity.
Although the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (
) has performed about twice as bad as gold itself over the past
three months (see chart below), we're buying GDX shares at
$22.50. Our tandem options trade is to buy the GDX JUL call
options (price and expiration reserved for subscribers) at around
$100 per contract. We like the odds of a short-term gold bounce,
especially if the equity market experiences its long overdue
correction. And if GDX follows its historical pattern, it should
outperform gold to the upside."
How has it turned out? Our unleveraged GDX trade has already
gained around 15% since our 6/4 alert and our tandem GDX call
options trade is up more than 250%. Trades in directional 3x gold
mining ETFs (NYSEARCA:NUGT) are also up big. (See chart)
Profit Strategy Newsletter
uses technicals, fundamentals, discipline and common sense to find
opportunities that others miss. Subscribers get text and email
alerts along with actionable trades.
Follow us on Twitter @
* Psychosis refers to an abnormal condition of the mind, and is
a generic psychiatric term for a mental state often described as
involving a "loss of contact with reality." People suffering from
psychosis are described as psychotic.