Historical Trend Favors Shorts Trading HP off After-Hours Earnings Events

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Hewlett-Packard ( HPQ ) is set to report its Q4 results in the extended-hours today, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting a profit of $1.00 per share on revenue of $27.89 billion.

HPQ is favoring a pattern where it follows through with more aggressive next-day regular session trade following an earnings-driven after-hours move. It has moved more aggressively in the same direction the next day in 24 of 39 quarters. In the near term, it has added to its evening performance in next-day trade in 16 of the last 23 quarters.

Looking deeper into HPQ's movement between the sessions, it has seen an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 19 of the 39 quarters we've tracked. In 15 of those quarters, 79% of the time, HPQ has followed its evening decline with a deeper percentage move south in the following regular session - a stock shorts may want to keep a close eye on.

On the plus-side, HPQ has seen an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 20 of the 39 quarters in our database. In nine of those quarters, the stock added to its evening performance in next day trade (a performance of 45%). Here we would note longs may want to be wary of betting too heavily on an outsized gain the next day as upside support tends to wane in the following regular session. On the short side, since HPQ often sees its after-hours gains cut back (55% of the time), traders may want to watch for any ceilings that develop that could foretell a potential entry point to play downside momentum.

On Aug. 21, 2013, HPQ, slumped 5.6% in after-hours trade after posting mostly in-line results and guidance. The stock was hit for deeper declines the next day, closing the Aug. 22 regular session down 12.4%.

On May 22, 2013, HPQ soared 13.9% in night trade after topping Q2 earnings estimates and setting guidance above the Street view. The stock roared higher the next day, closing the May 23 regular session up 17.1%.

On Feb. 21, 2013, HPQ gained 4.6% in after-hours trade on the back of better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock launched even higher the next day, closing the Feb. 22 regular session up 12.2%.

On Nov. 20, 2012, HPQ plummeted 12.4% in pre-market trade after releasing results early, beating on Q4 earnings but guiding Q1 EPS below the Street. The stock cut its downside slightly in that day's regular session, ending off 11.9%.

On Aug. 22, 2012, HPQ shed 2.1% in evening trade after missing on Q3 revenue and guiding below expectations. The stock moved deeper south the next day, closing the Aug. 23 regular session down 8.1%.

On May 23, 2012, HPQ advanced 10.5% in evening trade after topping Q2 estimates and setting mixed guidance. The stock cut its upside the next day, ending the May 24 regular session with a 3.2% gain.

On Feb. 22, 2012, HPQ declined 1.1% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 earnings estimates but also issuing Q2 guidance below the Street view. The stock was hit for a sharper drop the next day, closing the Feb. 23 regular session off 6.5%.

On Nov. 21, 2011, HPQ dipped 2% in evening trade after beating on Q4 earnings but issuing earnings guidance below the Street view. The stock was crushed lower the next day, closing the Nov. 22 regular session down 20%.

On Aug. 18, 2011, HPQ slumped 9.6% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations but setting its Q4 guidance below analyst estimates. The stock narrowed its decline in the following day's regular session, ending down 0.8% on Aug. 19.

On May 17, 2011, HPQ dropped 5.5% in pre-bell trade after beating Q2 expectations and setting its guidance below Street estimates. The stock moved lower in that day's regular session, closing down 7.2%.

On Feb. 22, 2011, HPQ tumbled 12.5% in night trade on the back of mixed Q1 results and Q2 guidance below the Street view. The declines narrowed in next-day trade, closing the Feb. 23 regular session off 9.6%.

On Nov. 22, 2010, HPQ gained 3.1% in evening trade after beating Q4 estimates and setting its outlook above the Street view. The stock saw its gains narrow the next day, closing the Nov. 23 regular session up 2.1%.

On Aug. 19, 2010, HPQ slipped 0.7% in after-hours trade after posting slightly better-than-expected Q3 results. The stock moved deeper in the red the next day, closing the Aug. 20 regular session down 2.2%.

On May 18, 2010, HPQ gained 2.1% in after-hours activity on better-than-expected Q2 results. Guidance, however, was mixed. The company boosted its FY outlook above Street estimates but forecast Q3 to be in line to below expectations. HPQ cut its evening gains the next day, ending the regular session up 0.4%.

On Feb. 17, 2010, HPQ added 0.9% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 estimates and raisings its FY10 outlook. The next day during regular hours, the stock extended gains, ending up 1.3%.

On Nov. 23, 2009, HPQ slipped 0.5% in after-hours action despite beating Q4 expectations and setting in-line guidance. The stock shed a slightly more aggressive 1.6% in the Nov. 24 regular session.

On Aug. 18, 2009, HPQ dropped 1.9% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations but offering mixed guidance for Q4. The stock narrowed its downside the following day, ending the Aug. 19 regular session off 0.3%.

On May 19, 2009, HPQ declined 4.6% in after-hours action after meeting Q2 expectations and setting its Q3 guidance in-line with Street estimates. The stock headed lower the following day, closing the May 20 regular session down 5.2%.

On Feb. 18, 2009, HPQ lost 6.6% in after-hours trade after posting Q1 revenue below expectations, matching on EPS, and offering mixed guidance. The declined swelled to a 7.8% decline by the close on Feb. 19.

On Nov. 24, 2008, HPQ declined 1.4% in evening trade after beating Q4 expectations and issuing mixed guidance. The stock added to its downside the next day, losing 5.8% by the Nov. 25 closing bell.

On Aug. 19, 3008, HPQ advanced 2.7% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations and setting its guidance mostly above the Street view. The stock surged even higher in the Aug. 20 regular session, closing with a 5.7% gain.

On May 20, 2008, the stock slipped 0.6% during evening trading after beating with Q2 results but guiding in line. The loss fattened to 3.5% the next day.

On Feb. 19, 2008, the stock gained 5.1% during evening trading after a Q1 beat and guidance above the Street view. The stock gained 7.9% the next day.

On Nov. 19, 2007, the stock gained 1.4% during evening trading after a Q4 beat, guidance above the Street view and a new buyback. The gain was reined in to a narrow 0.2% by the closing bell the next day.

On Aug. 16, 2007, HPQ inched up 0.3% in after hours when the company beat Q3 expectations and offered guidance above Street views. Shares built on those gains the next day to end the regular session up 2.4%.

On May 16, 2007, HPQ edged up 0.8% in night trade after topping Q2 estimates. Shares, though, lost momentum and eased back 0.7% by the end of the next day's regular session.

On Feb. 20, 2007, the stock fell 1.1% in the evening hours even after the company beats with Q1 results and guides in line to above. The loss was a deeper 4.7% the next day.

On Nov. 16, 2006, the stock slipped 0.8% after reporting ahead of the Street but underwhelming with in-line guidance. The loss just widened to 0.9% the next day.

On Aug. 16, 2006, HPQ jumped 5% in after hours when the company topped Q3 estimates and guided mostly higher. The shares though, gave back some of those gains the next day, closing the regular session up 2%.

On May 16, 2006, HPQ rose 3.3% in evening trade after beating Q2 EPS and reporting in-line sales. It also guided higher. The shares held their gains the next day, closing the regular session up 3.3%.

On February 15, 2006, HPQ rose 3.5% in night trade after beating Q1 estimates and forecasting for higher-than-expected Q2 sales. The shares strengthened further the next day, ending the regular session up 7.4%.

On Nov. 17, 2005, shares were up 5.9% on a report of Q4 revs of $22.9 billion, vs. the FC mean of $22.77 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.51 per share, blowing past the Street view of $0.46 per share. The gain was reduced to 1.3% the next day.

On August 16, 2005, HPQ advanced 6.5% in evening trade after the company topped Q3 estimates. It climbed further the next day, ending the regular-hours session up 13.1%.

On May 17, 2005 HPQ advanced 3.7% in after-hours trade after the company beat Q2 expectations and guided in-line to higher. It found additional upside support on May 18, gaining 4.6% by that day's closing bell.

HPQ advanced 3% the night of Feb. 16, 2005 after the company beat Q1 estimates, guided its sales ahead of the Street, and its EPS in line. Buyers ditched the stock on Feb. 17, allowing it to slide to a 0.9% decline.

HPQ jumped 8.6% the night of Nov. 16, 2004 after the company blew past lowered Q4 expectations and set its first half FY05 targets in line with the current Street view. The stock saw the bulk of its evening gains cut back in next day trade, ending the Nov. 17 regular session up 2.6%.

HPQ issued disappointing preliminary Q3 results in the Aug. 12, 2004 pre-market, and the stock tumbled 12.3% ahead of the opening bell. It added to its downside in that day's regular session, ending off 13.1%.

On May 18, 2004 HPQ added 4.1% in after-hours trade on better-than-expected results and a raised second-half outlook. It cut its gains the next day, rising 3.6% by the closing bell.

On Feb. 19, 2004 HPQ declined 2.1% after reporting in-line results and outlook. It added to its downside in the Feb. 20 regular session, losing 3% by the close.



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

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