The average payment size of each transaction on PayPal has
declined slightly in the past two years, from around $68 in 2007 to
$64 in 2009,  due in part to the slump in the economy.
However, we expect the payment size to increase going forward at a
slow rate. PayPal is a global payment platform operated by eBay (
) that enables secure, easy, quick, and cost-effective transfer of
payments online. It competes with Google (
) Checkout and Amazon (
PayPal generates revenue both from eBay's platforms, as well as
from third party platforms. We currently have a
Trefis price estimate of around $30 for eBay's
, about 22% above the current market price of $24.
In the past,
Average Payment Size on PayPal
has increased from around $53 in 2003 to around $68 in 2007. The
number of consumer purchases reduced in 2008 and 2009, owing to the
weak economy. While average payment sizes have generally been
increasing over the last few years, the fraction of PayPal's Total
Payment Volume (TPV) that is attributable to transactions conducted
on eBay sites has declined from around 64% in 2006 to 44% in 2009.
 These trends together suggest that PayPal's average
payment size may continue to increase as PayPal use becomes more
prevalent off eBay sites.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Average Payment Size
on PayPal indicate an increase from $61.50 in 2010 to $68 by the
end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis
estimate of an increase from $62 in 2010 to $70 by the end of the
Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a downside of 1%
to the Trefis price estimate for eBay's stock.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own
view, and see the sensitivity of Ebay's stock to Average Payment
Size on PayPal.
complete analysis for eBay's stock is here
 Average Payment Size on PayPal is calculated as:
Total Payment Volume (TPV)
Total Number of payments on PayPal. Ebay reports TPV in its SEC
filings and the number of payments on PayPal in its press release.
 Reported in eBay's SEC filings