We expect the growth in notebooks and netbooks will benefit
computer makers like Dell (
), Apple (
) and HP (
). Dell's PC market share, in particular, has been declining over
the years. It's trying to improve its position by building up on
its cloud offerings, and expanding its foray into tablets. This
combined with the booming notebook and netbook market should help
Dell regain its lost market share.
While we anticipate global shipments of notebooks and netbooks
will reach 380 million by the end of Trefis forecast period,
Trefis members expect the sales will near 420 million. We
currently have a
Trefis price estimate of $20.84
After Notebooks, Netbooks Take the Lead
The global sales of notebooks and netbooks combined have grown
at a rate of above 25% annually over the past few years with an
increasing consumer shift from static desktops to mobile notebooks.
The sales have risen from an estimated 62 million in 2005 to around
203 million in 2010. We expect the growth in notebooks and netbooks
to continue, although at a slower pace, due to maturing of the
notebook market. However, netbooks and tablets will continue to
rule the PC market with newer technologies and rapid innovation in
terms of product design and features.
The beginning of the last decade saw a consumer shift from
desktops to notebooks. The increasing adoption of notebooks has
resulted in a steady growth of the PC market though this was
subdued somewhat during the economic crisis. We expect growth to
resume as notebook growth should remain at moderate levels as
notebooks have crossed the early growth phase of the product cycle
and now starting to mature as an industry.
A majority of the growth in coming years will come from netbook
sales as they gain increasing popularity worldwide, and rapid
innovation and competition will make them cheaper and
Tablets, Cloud Offerings Should Drive Dell's PC
Dell surpassed Acer to become the second largest PC sales vendor
in Q4 2010 aided by strong emerging market sales realizing 4.2% YOY
growth compared to Q4 2009. Dell is also expanding its presence in
tablets and cloud offerings with plans to acquire cloud-service
companies like Compellent Technologies, Insite One, and SecureWorks
Should Dell Focus its Net Cash Position on
Investment in Tablet Technology?
). The company recently unveiled a 10-inch Windows 7 based tablet,
one of the 39 new products showcased at the company's "Dell Means
Business" event in San Francisco.
Trefis Community Forecast
Trefis members forecast for global notebook & netbook
shipments will increase from 266 million in 2011 to 418 million by
the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline
Trefis estimate of an increase from 259 million to 381 million
during the same period. The member estimates imply an upside of
just under 5% to the Trefis price estimate for Dell's stock.
complete analysis for Dell's stock is here