We expect leading coffee maker
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc.
) to beat expectations when it reports first quarter fiscal 2013
results on Feb 6.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that Green Mountain is likely to beat
earnings because it has the right combination of two key
Positive Zacks ESP
: Green Mountain's Expected Surprise Prediction or ESP (Read:
Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method
) stands at +6.15%. This represents the difference between the
Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This is
very meaningful and a leading indicator of a likely positive
earnings surprise for shares.
Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)
: Green Mountain currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong
Buy). Note that stocks with Zacks Ranks of #1, #2 and #3
have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. The sell
rated stocks (#4 and #5) should never be considered going into an
The combination of the stock's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and
ESP of +6.15% makes us confident of an earnings beat on Feb
What is Driving the Better Than Expected Earnings?
Green Mountain's performance turned around in the fourth
quarter of fiscal 2012 from past few weak quarterly results. In
the fourth quarter, it delivered an impressive earnings surprise
of 36.2%. In fact this company has beaten estimates in 3 out of 4
past quarters, posting a healthy average earnings surprise of
36.3%. Estimates are mostly seeing an upward trend ahead of the
first quarter fiscal 2013 results.
In addition, the company is focusing on its products and has
rolled out many new products. Besides, Green Mountain, which
specializes in single cup brewing technology, has upgraded its
Keurig brewing system to attract more customers.
Based on its progress, the company raised its earnings per
share projection for fiscal 2013 to $2.64-$2.74 from
Other Stocks to Consider
Green Mountain is not the only firm looking up this earnings
season. You can also consider these stocks that offer exposure to
the attractive retail-wholesale sector:
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
), Earnings ESP of +5.18% and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)
Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cotta
), Earnings ESP of +7.14% and Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)
), Earnings ESP of +3.80% and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)
ABERCROMBIE (ANF): Free Stock Analysis Report
GREEN MTN COFFE (GMCR): Free Stock Analysis
NATURAL GROCERS (NGVC): Free Stock Analysis
PRICESMART INC (PSMT): Free Stock Analysis
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