(IBTimes) - Gold, Silver, Oil Price Forecast
The Overall Technicals
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold dropped to as low as 1572.0 last week. The break of 1613,
the Key support, confirmed resumption of fall from
Some consolidations could be seen early this week, near
term outlook is Bearish as long as 1623.6 resistance holds.
Current decline is expected to extend towards 1523.9 support
and possibly lower.
The Big Picture: price actions from the 1923.7 high are
viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. Fall from 1792.7
is viewed as 1 of the falling legs inside the pattern, and
should head back to 1478.3/1577.4 Support Zone. I
expect strong support at the 1478.3-1577.4 Support
Zone to contain any Southside to finish the consolidation and
bring on the up-trend resumption to another high above 1923.7
On the upside
: a break of 1627.3, the Key resistance, will augur
that fall from 1792.7 has finished, and turn focus back to
this resistance instead.
The Long Term Picture: with 1478.3 support intact, there is no
change in the long term Bullish outlook in Gold, though some more
medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, I
anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psych level in the
long run. Stay tuned...
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
Comex Silver (
Silver's fall extended last week to as low as
28.415. Silver is losing some Southside momentum, with mild
Bullish convergence condition in 4 hs MACD, but there is no sign
of bottoming yet.
Current fall should extend to 26.145 support and lower. But, a
move above 4 hrs 55 EMA, now at 29.732, will bring on
consolidations 1st. However, in that case, the Northside
should be limited to below 31.09 support turned resistance and
bring on another decline.
The Big Picture:
the price actions from 26.15 should be a consolidation pattern,
and has completed with 3 waves to 37.48. Fall from there is
treated as resumption of the medium term decline from 49.82,
the high and should extend through 26.145 to 61.8%
retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 and below. But , a clear
break of 31.03, the resistance, will dampen this POV, and
turn focus back to 37.48 instead.
The Long Term Picture: the main question remains on if
49.82 is a medium term or long term top. Current development is
favoring the latter. I would prefer to see clear
break of 61.8% retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 to confirm
this. Barring that, the price actions from 49.82
could just be developing into a sideway pattern. Stay
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
Crude Oil (
Crude Oil's fall from 105.98 extended further to 95.17 last
week. While some consolidations could be seen initially this
week, my near term outlook is cautiously Bearish as
long as 100.68 support turned resistance holds.
The fall should extend to 92.52, the support near term
50% retracement of 74.95 to 100.55 at 92.75, and below.
Though, I do see support from 61.8% retracement at 88.55 on
initial attempt to bring on a recovery.
The Big Picture:
the price actions from 114.84 are developing into a 3 wave
consolidation pattern. And, the 3rd leg should have already
started at 110.55. Deeper fall can eventually be seen to
74.95 low and possibly below. We likely will see strong
support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to
114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. I
will be looking for reversal signal below 74.95.
The Long Term Picture:
Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from
147.27, the 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective
structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it is the
2nd wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make
another high above 114.83, I see strong resistance ahead of
147.24 to bring reversal for the 3rd leg of the
consolidation pattern. Stay tuned...
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
Nymex Natural Gas (
Nat Gas' rebound from 1.902 continued last week, but started
to lose upside momentum with mild Bearish divergence condition in
4 hrs MACD. We may see more rallying in here, but the
Northside will likely be limited by 2.742 resistance and bring on
a pull back. A break below 2.276, the minor support,
will turn the bias back to the Southside to retest
the 1.902 low.
The Big Picture
: Bullish convergence condition in daily MACD suggests that fall
from 4.983 completed at 1.902 and stronger rebound would be seen.
Such rebound could reach as high as 38.2% retracement of 4.983 to
1.902 at 3.079. But, there needs to be a clear break of 3.255,
the support turned resistance, to indicate completion of the
down trend from 6.108. Barring that, I am looking for another low
below 1.902 eventually.
The Long Term Picture:
the down trend from 13.694, the Y 2008 high, is still in
progress, so is that from 15.78, the Y 2005 high. Monthly MACD's
stay below the signal line suggest that the Southside momentum is
increasing. The Y 2002 low of 1.96 is breached and some rebound
should be seen, and another down trend extension will drive
Nat Gas to the Y 1999 low of 1.62 IMO. Stay tuned...
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red
Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a
weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion
makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and
stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career
that included investment banking, and market and business
analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an
accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to
Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.
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