SPDR Gold Trust (
ETF
), NYSE:GLD, iShares Silver Trust (
ETF
), NYSE:SLV, United States Oil Fund LP (
ETF
) NYSE:USO
The Overall Fundamentals
Gold
and Silver
Gold finished higher by 1.3% at 1682.60 oz, and Silver
futures gained 2.4% to finish at 32.79 oz.
The Gold market was unable to hold onto a move to new high
ground early in the session and faded to negative territory by
the close. A stronger USD and a noticeable retreat from Monday's
"risk on" attitude may have pulled support from the market later
in the day. The Gold market lagged other commodities as they were
able to hold into positive territory throughout the session. A
Key event for Gold is still on the horizon, as Slovakia's vote on
expanding the EuroZone rescue fund was postponed until Thursday.
The Silver market made it through several periods of choppy and 2
sided trading during the session, with prices able to grind out a
modest gain by afternoon trading. Stronger equity markets helped
to underpin recent gains, but strength in the Dollar may have
limited Silver's ability to recover back to new highs for the
move. The market stayed within the recent trading range but was
on course to post the highest closing price since September 22
nd.
Crude Oil
Crude Oil futures ended their 5 session rally today
after posting modest declines of 0.3% to end at 85.57 bbl.
Trade in Crude Oil was quiet Wednesday as prices moved sideways
around the flat line ahead of tomorrow's inventory
data.
Nov Crude Oil traded higher throughout the early morning
hours, making their high of the session ahead of the US trading
session. Early gains came on the back of a sharp decline in the
USD and a rally across most risk assets. Some traders indicated
that hopes for a Slovakian vote to expand the EFSF bailout
package was seen as a positive that bolstered risk appetites. It
is possible that some of the early gains in Crude Oil were
tempered by a pair of Global Crude Oil demand estimates from the
IEA and EIA this morning that were revised lower. The EIA
indicated that they continued to see downside risks in the Global
economy, and that is a factor that could put added downside
pressure on Crude Oil prices. But, the gains on Wall Street and
other commodity markets kept the market support throughout the
session on Wednesday.
The Overall Technicals w/Support and Resistance
marks
Gold
Yesterday's Bearish wave ebbed around 1653.00 zone as seen on
the secondary image of the 4-H interval.
On graph, you can see how trading dipped below TEMA 20; while
the structure of the last 4-H candlesticks looks corrective
inside the long black candlestick pattern.
Therefore, I look forward to seeing more downside actions
based on the wider daily picture of the Double Top formation;
noting that a break of 1653.00 this time will likely bring on a
panic sell-off. But, areas of 1702.00 should protect the awaited
bearishness.
The trading range for Wednesday is among the Key support at
1575.00 and Key resistance now at 1752.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the
Northside, targeting 1945.00 oz as long as areas of 1475.00
remain intact with weekly closing.
Support
: 1653.00, 1635.00, 1615.00, 1590.00, 1575.00
Resistance
: 1673.00, 1687.00, 1695.00, 1702.00, 1715.00
Recommendation
Based on the chart and explanations above my opinion now
is, selling Gold below 1653.00 and targeting 1575.00 and placing
at Stop Loss above 1702.00 is likely prudent. Stay tuned...
Silver
The precious White metal is stable below the 20-Day Simple
Moving Average, and also below 33.15-65, which completed the
continuation technical structure, where this structure remains
valid with stability below these levels.
The Stochastic is within over bought areas, which could also
add more confirmations to the Bearish continuation structure.
So, I now expect the Southside movement to remain valid as
long as Silver is stable below 33.65 oz.
The trading range for today is among the Key support at 30.30,
and Key resistance now at 34.40.
The short-term trend is to the Southside targeting 26.65 as
long as 48.50 remains intact.
Support:
31.85, 31.30, 31.05, 30.65, 30.30
Resistance:
32.95, 33.15, 33.65, 34.00, 34.40
Recommendation Based on the chart below, and explanations
above, I recommend selling Silver around 32.85 and take profit in
stages at; 30.85 and 29.05, and place a Stop Loss with daily
closing above 33.70 may be prudent
.
Stay tuned...
Crude Oil
Crude Oil fluctuated heavily Tuesday, but it ended the day
above the 50-Day SMA again, but below the main descending
resistance, while Stochastic is entering overbought territory. An
upside breakout over daily basis above the descending resistance
may signal a Bullish rally targeting initially 90.00 , but for
now I will remain Neutral, until a clear continuation or reversal
signals occur.
The trading range for the day is among the major support at
82.00 and the major resistance at 88.50.
The short-term trend is to the Southside with steady daily
closing below 100.00 targeting 65.00.
Support: 84.50, 83.95, 83.30, 82.75, 81.70
Resistance: 86.00, 86.60, 87.40, 88.00, 89.00
Recommendation Based on the chart below, and explanations
above again I recommend staying aside awaiting more
confirmations. Stay tuned...
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red
Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a
weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion
makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and
stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career
that included investment banking, and market and business
analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an
accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to
Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.