Gold Resolves Bearish Divergence with 50% Fibo Retracement

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Simple Moving Average( SMA ) 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.

Fibonacci Study
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance

Multiple Time-frame Analysis

Weekly Gold Update - Impulse Wave Complete with Bearish Divergence (3/25)

Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold 4H Chart 3/28/2011

Short to Medium Term
- Gold was seen in a bearish divergence completing an impulse wave to end last week. This suggested a correction before another bull run.
- So far the market has retraced 50% near 1415 as anticipated in the previous post. It can extend lower towards 1406 (61.8% retracement).
- A break below 1405 however threatens the bullish outlook and suggests range trading.
- The daily chart shows that a range can be developing below the 1445 high, and above the 1380 low. Below 1380 we have the 1330 pivots in sight, where the 200SMA also reside.
- There is a bearish divergence developing also in the daily chart, so this bearish outlook is not out of sight and 1405 should be monitored for a break towards 1380 area.
- On the upside, if the market respects 1405 , and rallies back above the 1425 zone seen in the 4H chart, we should be in a bullish attempt at least back to the 1445 high. A break above that then has 1485 in sight. As mentioned in the past, this is a fibonacci expansion and extension cluster. This would bring the market to fresh record highs.

Gold 3/28/2011 Daily Chart


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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , Commodities

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