Gold Technical Update
March 21, 2011 - Gold in Short-term Bearish Divergence
and Double Top
Simple Moving Average(
) 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
Bullish Continuation to 1445? (3/19)
Short to Medium Term
- Gold started the week rallying above last week's high, but
. In the 1H chart, we see a bearish divergence developing as well
as a small double top at the
- The candlestick action suggests we might be topping here for a
period. The opening gap, and
remains support, and the extension in a correction should not
break below the
pivot for swing to complete a bullish impulse wave.
is also 61.8% retracement of the rally from 3/17 to now.
- Note also that if the current topping is merely a sideways
correction, and we stay above the week's opening gap, we would
see a positive reversal signal.
- This suggests a swing projection towards
. The all-time high is a hair below
. Then it would appear that we are still in wave 3 of a bullish
impulse wave development that started 3/15.
- In the 4H chart we see that the current upswing is a second
upswing (3rd wave), and if it remains above
and breaks above the current high of
, we have a bullish impulse wave development, and confirmation of
the break above the declining channel resistance seen in the 4H
all time high would be the first target. A break above that eyes
area n ear 150% extended retracement.
- Let's see in the next couple of days whether we do get a
decline, to be followed by a rally before dipping below
. If so, we can anticipate a rally in the latter part of the week
, and perhaps towards the
extension target area.
Will gold continue to make fresh highs in such
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist