Simple Moving Average(
) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
Gold Pauses While Silver Pushes On (2/8)
- Gold has been in a rally since the end of January, pushing
pass 61.8% retracement of the decline that started January 13,
and stuck at 50% of the decline since the start of the year.
- The next cluster seen in the 4H chart is the
- This is the level the market has in sight if the current
decline is supported by the rising channel.
- On the other hand, if the market is respecting the 200SMA in
the 4H chart and breaks below the channel, it might be heading
back down to test the 1309 low.
- A break below this eyes the
area (50% retracement and 200SMA in the daily).
level is the lowest I have for gold at the moment because this is
an important pivot in 2010. It was an important resistance level,
and now would be a significant support level to accompany the
fibonacci retracement level of 61.8%.
- This scenario can either come now if the corrective rally is
over, or perhaps after another rally attempt.
- Compared to Gold, Silver's "corrective" rally has been more
aggressive, and the prospect of further decline is lesser.
- The 4H chart shows the RSI break above 70 though market action
has not clearly broken above 78.6% retracement, so this could
still be a deep corrective rally.
- The lack of convincing trending signals suggest we are still in
a ranging mode.
- If the market stays within the rising channel seen in the 4H
chart, there is a positive reversal signal pointing towards the
area with a swing projection.
- A break below the channel however only suggests a decline first
area. A break below that looks at the
pivot. Only a break below that suggests a test of
, and only a break below
as the next target.
- In this ranging mode, with bullish momentum, it is more likely
that silver will be testing its 2010 high of
Are the bulls still in control of gold and silver? We
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist