General Motors (
GM
) was the second largest global vehicle manufacturer in 2010,
selling its vehicles globally under four core brands - Cadillac,
GMC, Buick and Chevrolet. GM is also one of the best
positioned automakers in China, the world's largest automobile
market. The company actually sold more cars in China than in the
U.S. for the first time in 2010, and now has plans to double its
sales in China in 5 years. GM competes with other prominent auto
manufacturers like Toyota (
TM
), Honda (
HMC
), Ford (
F
),
Daimler
(ETR:DAI), Volkswagen (ETR:VOW) and Hyundai (SEO:005380).
Our $34.34 price estimate for GM stock
is about 15% above market price.
Multi-Brand Strategy to Match Evolving Needs of the
Chinese Market
As the Chinese auto market grows, so does the differing needs of
customers. GM plans to compete effectively and cater to the
evolving needs of Chinese customers by maintaining a broad
portfolio of multiple brands. Over the next 5 years GM plans to
introduce more than 60 new and upgraded models, nearly half of
which will be in its two mainstream brands in China - Chevrolet and
Buick. GM hopes that its product development capabilities in China
will help it to efficiently identify and address market needs.
Electric Vehicles to Power GM's China Growth
China is hoping to stimulate the demand for electric vehicles by
offering huge subsidies of up to $9,200 and also by offering grants
to cities to purchase electric buses and taxis. Though many
automakers are jittery about the requirements of technology
transfers to local joint-venture partners or auto part suppliers,
few can ignore the opportunity created by the size of the Chinese
auto market.
GM plans to capitalize on the potential demand for electric
vehicles in China and will work with joint-venture partner SAIC to
develop next generation electric vehicle architecture. GM is also
establishing a lab in Shanghai to explore and develop battery
technologies. China will be one of the first markets where GM will
offer its Chevrolet Volt extended-range electric vehicle.
+16% Upside to Our Price Estimate if GM Successfully
Executes its Strategy
In our base case scenario, we estimate that GM's market share in
China will decrease during the years ahead, with GM vehicle sales
in China hitting 3.3 million units in 2015. But for GM to achieve
its sales target of 5 million units by 2015, its market share in
China will have to increase by 80 basis points every year (assuming
no change to our projections for total vehicles sold in China).
This market share growth would imply a $40 stock value for GM, more
than 16% ahead of
our $34.34 price estimate
.
You can test this scenario, and others, by dragging the trend
lines in the interactive charts above.
See our complete analysis for GM's stock here