British mobile phone giant
Vodafone Group Plc
(
VOD
) announced key performance indicators for the third quarter of
fiscal 2012 (ended December 2011). In its interim statement for the
quarter, the carrier reported consolidated revenue of £11.62
billion ($18.27 billion), representing a 2.3% year-over-year
reduction. On an organic basis, group revenue inched up 1.6% from
the year-ago quarter. Vodafone does not report earnings in its
quarterly filing.
The lackluster performance in the third quarter was due to cuts
in the mobile termination rate and challenging conditions in
southern Europe arising from threats of recession due to the
sovereign debt crisis.
Group service revenue (91.3% of total revenue) grew 0.9% year
over year on an organic basis to £10.61 billion ($16.69 billion).
On reported basis, group service revenue declined 3.2% year over
year.
Consolidated data revenue was £1.57 billion ($2.46 billion), up
18.1% year over year (21.8% on an organic basis), boosted by strong
smartphone and mobile Internet sales. Messaging revenue grew 1.1%
(4.3% organically) to £1.3 billion ($2.1 billion) from the year-ago
quarter while voice revenue dropped 9.3% on a reported and 4.7% on
an organic basis to £6.29 billion ($9.9 billion).
Fixed-line services upped 3.2% year over year (3.9% on organic
basis) to £907 million ($1.43 billion) driven by healthy broadband
subscriber accretion. Other service revenue was £509 million
($800.5 million) in the third quarter, up 3.5% year over year on a
reported and 7.8% on an organic basis.
Segment Results
Europe
Revenues for the European segment fell 1.9% year over year and
0.7% on an organic basis to £8.1 billion ($12.7 billion). Service
revenue in Europe also slid 3.1% and 1.7% organically to £7.4
billion (11.7 billion) as growth in Germany, the UK, the
Netherlands and Turkey was offset by declines across southern
European markets, in particular Italy and Spain.
Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific
The Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific revenue slid 0.6% year
over year but climbed 8.6% organically to £3.47 billion ($5.46
billion). Service revenue increased 7.6% year over year on an
organic basis, driven by strong subscriber growth in India, Vodacom
and Ghana, partially offset by weak performances in Australia and
Egypt.
Subscriber Trends
During the reported quarter, Vodafone added roughly 10.1 million
new mobile connections across its operations, bringing the total
subscriber base to 398.1 million (80.4% represented by prepaid).
Vodacom continued to be a key driver of subscriber growth with net
addition of 5 million customers, contributing 55% to total net
addition in the Asia Pacific & Middle East segment.
In Europe, the company registered a net addition of 1 million
subscribers, bringing the region's total customer base to 149.9
million at the end of December 2011. Africa, Middle East & Asia
Pacific added 9.1 million customers, taking the total subscription
to 248.2 million in the quarter.
Liquidity
Vodafone's net debt reduced to £25.5 billion in the third
quarter from £26.2 billion at the end of first half fiscal
2012.
The company generated free cash flow of £1.46 billion ($2.3
billion), up 34.9% year over year during the reported quarter.
Vodafone invested £1.46 billion ($2.3 billion) in its business,
down 5.2% from the year-ago quarter.
Guidance
Vodafone reiterated its fiscal 2012 guidance. Management expects
EBITDA margin to decline at a lower rate compared to fiscal 2011 as
a result of falling revenue in Southern Europe. Adjusted operating
profit is expected in the range of £11.4 billion to £11.8
billion.
Free cash flow is expected in the range of £6.0 billion to £6.5
billion, excluding the £2.8 billion dividend received from Verizon
Wireless in January 2012.
Our Take
Coupled with successful smartphone and data services, we believe
the expansion into emerging markets such as Eastern Europe, Asia,
India and Africa, divestiture of minority interests and increasing
reward to shareholders will fuel the company's future growth.
However, persistent revenue decline in southern European
operations, regulatory pressure, stiff competition from larger
rivals like
Verizon Communications
(
VZ
) and
AT&T Inc.
(
T
), and reductions in mobile termination rates pose major threats to
the stock.
We are currently maintaining our long-term Neutral
recommendation on Vodafone. For the short term (1-3 months), the
stock retains a Zacks #4 (Sell) Rank.
AT&T INC (
T
): Free Stock Analysis Report
VODAFONE GP PLC (
VOD
): Free Stock Analysis Report
VERIZON COMM (
VZ
): Free Stock Analysis Report
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