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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: January 14 - 18

By Investing.com January 13, 2013, 02:13:34 AM EDT

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week sharply lower against the Swiss franc on Friday, as optimism over signs of a recovery in the euro zone dampened investor demand for safe-haven assets.

USD/CHF hit 0.9109 on Friday, the pair's lowest since January 2; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9132 by close of trade, 1.2% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9082, the low of December 20 and a seven-month low and resistance at 0.9267, Thursday's high.

The dollar fell more than 1% against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.75% and President Mario Draghi said a gradual economic recovery would begin this year.

Some investors had expected the ECB to hint a possible rate cuts in the coming months going into Thursday's policy meeting.

The single currency hit its highest level against the Swiss franc in over a year on Friday, with EUR/CHF up 0.47% to settle at 1.2185.

On Monday, data from the Swiss National Bank showed that foreign currency reserves declined to CHF427.17 billion in December from CHF427.37 billion the previous month, down for the third successive month.

The data is closely watched for indications of how much the bank is spending to defend the 1.20 per euro minimum exchange rate floor put in place in September 2011.

The dollar was little changed on Friday after official data showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in November, growing to USD48.7 billion, the biggest deficit since April. Imports climbed 3.8% to USD231.3 billion, while exports rose 1% to USD182.6 billion.

In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on monetary policy and the recovery from the global financial crisis on Monday, as well as Tuesday's data on U.S. retail sales for December.

Switzerland is also slated to release government data on retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 14

In the U.S., Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at the University of Michigan; his comments will be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Tuesday, January 15

The U.S. is to publish government data on retail sales, the leading indicator of consumer spending, which comprises the majority of economic activity, as well as official data on producer price inflation. In addition, the U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York state and a report on business inventories.

Wednesday, January 16

Switzerland is to release official data on retail sales.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to produce government data on consumer inflation, in addition to data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate. The country is also to publish official data on crude oil stockpiles, while the Fed is to publish its Beige Book, which looks at current economic conditions.

Thursday, January 17

Switzerland is to publish government data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Elsewhere, the U.S. was to produce official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts. The U.S. was also to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and data on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia.

Friday, January 18

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of consumer spending.



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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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