FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - "We cannot argue that the EUR is
consolidating the July/September rally any more," said in a recent
report TD Securities' analysts Greg Moore and Shaun Osborne. And
it's true that despite the EUR/USD closed on Friday its third
downward week, the negative sentiment wasn't proved at all. But
now, it seems the EUR/USD is knocking the bearish door definitely.
The euro closed the week trading quietly between 1.2700 and 1.2725
against the US Dollar after joining a hard battle for the 1.2740,
which take the EUR/USD from 1.2790 in the Friday's Asian session to
reach 2-month lows at 1.2690 just at the NY opening bell.
In this line, Osborne and Moore pointed that "this week's break
through support in the low 1.28 area (200-day MA and the
September/October range base) argues more strongly and obviously
for lower EUR levels."
And TD Securities affirms that the 1.24 is now open. "The break out
from the sideways range trade (a double top) targets a drop to the
upper 1.24 area. A second weekly close below the 40-day MA supports
the negative outlook now."
The weekly Commitments of Traders report shows that EUR shorts
increases to 67K in the last week to Tuesday vs 58K in the previous
one. So it seems the market is selling euros and, taking that the
aggregate USD net short position continues to grind lower and now
is the smallest net position against the USD since late August,
As for short-term, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com
recently commented that "immediate support and probable next target
comes around 1.2650 price zone, while once below, next level comes
at 1.2610, 50% retracement of 1.2040/1.3170. The upside now, should
remain capped by 1.2740 price zone".
Wall Street closed mix focusing on Fiscal Cliff
The stocks rallied in the beginning of the session on hopes that
President Barack Obama would say anything relevant in his speech on
economic conditions and fiscal cliff, but after speech investors
were trading on defense expecting long talks.
President Obama invited congressional leaders from both majority
parties to the White House next week to start negotiations on
economic and fiscal issues according to his speech on late Friday.
The DJIA fell 0.06% on the day, or 7.99 pts to 12,803.33. The Dow
lost 2.12% on the week. The S&P 500 advances 0.17%, or 2.34 pts
to close at 1,379.85. In the week the S&P close 2.43% down. The
Nasdaq recovered the 2,900 line after gaining 0.32% or 9.29 pts to
close at 2,904.87. In the last 5 days, the Nasdaq Composite
The week Ahead
As Richard Lee commented in a recent report., "a look ahead to next
week's economic release schedule shows the potential for plenty of
market moving opportunities." So here are 5 events that investors
wouldn't want to miss.
1. Eurogroup Meeting (Nov 12)
2. UK Consumer Price Index (Nov 13)
3. US Retail Sales Report (Nov 14)
4. FOMC Meeting Minutes (Nov 14)
5. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (Nov 15)
Finally, the FXstreet.com's big banks, brokers and independent
experts forecast poll has been just launched and it is pointing
that the 84% of the pool shows bearish forecasts for the