Forex Technical Update
November 4, 2010 - Gold's Elliott Wave Count Adjustment
Simple Moving Average(
) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Multiple Time-Frame Analysis
The zig zag scenario and count is invalid. The \"B\" wave is too
strong. Looking at the 4H chart, we see that the market instead
of going ABC, could not make a lower low in the \"C\" wave and
instead broke above B. Therefore, I think that count is invalid,
and instead, a new count should be considered. The market could
be done with the correction from about 1385 to 1315 area.
- When the market broke above the declining trendline on 10/28,
the market may have started a wave 1, and the decline that was
supported yesterday from going further down was wave 2. The
current rally is strong and fits the description of wave 3.
Further confirmation is the RSI breaking above 70 and price level
breaking and closing above the previous pivot at 1385 area.
- Finally, the market could still be in a flat correction
instead of a zig zag. The twitsting and turning of consolidation
patterns is one of the hardest thing to follow and makes even
pure Elliott Wave practitioners cringe, so for a clear signal, I
would like to see the market break above the previous all-time
high, and then show a decently strong but failed bearish attempt,
held above 1350.
- These signs point to further rally for a first target at 1420
area. This is the about 150% expanded retracement as shown in the
daily chart below and is a good projection for the current
Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
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