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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: January 14 - 18

By Investing.com January 13, 2013, 06:13:49 AM EDT

Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar fell sharply against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as the release of data showing inflation in China accelerated at the fastest pace in seven months in December dampened hopes for near-term stimulus measures from Beijing.

NZD/USD hit 0.8459 on Friday, the pair's highest since December 17; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8358 by close of trade, 0.53% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8333, the low from January 8 and resistance at 0.8459, Friday's high.

The kiwi retreated from a three-week high on Friday after official data showed that consumer price inflation in China rose to 2.5% in December, up from 2% in November and above expectations for a 2.3% increase.

Politically sensitive food costs accelerated 4.2% in December from a year earlier. The rise in Chinese food costs was driven by a 14.8% increase in the price of vegetables.

The higher-than-expected reading dampened expectations Beijing will introduce fresh monetary easing measures in the near-term to prop up the world's second largest economy.

The New Zealand dollar rallied on Thursday after government data showed that China's trade surplus widened unexpectedly in December, adding to signs of recovery in the world's second largest economy.

Chinese exports grew 14.1% from a year earlier in December, blowing past expectations for a 5% gain and up from a 2.9% increase in November.

Imports expanded by 6% from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 3.5% increase and following on from zero growth the previous month.

China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

Risk appetite received a further boost Thursday after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.75% and President Mario Draghi said a gradual economic recovery would begin this year.

Some investors had expected the ECB to hint a possible rate cuts in the coming months going into Thursday's policy meeting.

In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on monetary policy and the recovery from the global financial crisis on Monday, as well as Tuesday's data on U.S. retail sales for December.

Data from China on fourth quarter gross domestic product and industrial production will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 14

In the U.S., Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at the University of Michigan; his comments will be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Later Monday, New Zealand is to produce a report on business confidence.

Tuesday, January 15

The U.S. is to publish government data on retail sales, the leading indicator of consumer spending, which comprises the majority of economic activity, as well as official data on producer price inflation.

In addition, the U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York state and a report on business inventories.

Wednesday, January 16

The U.S. is to produce government data on consumer inflation, in addition to data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

The country is also to publish official data on crude oil stockpiles, while the Fed is to publish its Beige Book, which looks at current economic conditions.

Thursday, January 17

The U.S. was to produce official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts. The U.S. was also to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and data on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia.

Later Thursday, New Zealand is to publish official data on consumer price inflation.

Friday, January 18

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Investing.com
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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