Forex Notes (2/23)

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Simple Moving Average( SMA ) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.

Fibonacci Study
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance

Multiple Time-frame Analysis

Busy day and no chance to post all the charts up, but here are notes for some majors for today.

EUR/USD:
- The 1.3775 level or 78.6% retracement is the next level of resistance. Above that the 1.3861 high is the next resistance.
- If there is a throwback, check for support at around 1.37 . There is just a lot of noise at the moment, but a bullish trend appears to be developing, and the 1.40 s will be the target for another bullish swing. We can rally towards 1.42 , the November highs of 2010.
-The bearish scenario is reconsidered with a break below 1.34 .

GBP/USD:
- Continues to push towards 1.63 . The market can be bullish towards 1.65 with a break above this resistance.
- The bearish scenario is reconsidered with a break below 1.5960 , and a target would then be the 1.5750 level . A break below 1.57 then targets 1.54.
- The bullish scenario opens up after a break above 1.65 , with initial targets at 1.69 , 1.70 .

USD/JPY:
- As a panelist at this year's New York Expo mentioned, monitoring USD/JPY is like watching paint dry. You can say that about other pairs as well. Despite the choppiness, the USD/JPY remains bullish while it is above 82.20 area, and has the 84.50 target in sight.

EUR/GBP:
-
The pair is bullish today, breaking above 0.8450 . A break above 0.85 , suggests a rally towards 0.8650 . The market is in a range between 0.8650 and 0.8290 , and the current area around 0.85 is the middle, so there is no bullish or bearish bias.

USD/CHF:
- Hammering at support zone, the USD/CHF is developing a bullish divergence in the 1H chart with the RSI(14). The USD/CHF is ranging in the intermediate term, and bearish in the short-term. The short-term bearish attempt has brought the pair near the 0.93 support. The range resistance is at 0.9770 . As we near the bottom 1/3 of the range, we are more likely to rally within the next couple of sessions.
- But, a break below 0.93 then opens up a bearish scenario towards 0.89 , unless it is just a  "clear-out".

GBP/JPY:
- There might be topping action, if the market can stay below 134.80 , which means a retest of  133.00 . If the market breaks below that, we might hav ea decline towards 129.50 .
- On the upside, if the market eallies above 134.80 , it should test 135.45 . A break above that targets 136.40 and 137.75 .

EUR/JPY:
- A break above the current 114.00 resistance targets 115.60 highs from Oct. 2010. The bullish trend opens up above 115.60 towards 119.70 .
- Lot's of noise between 114.00 and 111.00 , so a break below 111.00 should see a decline towards the 107 low. 109.50 should also be monitored in this scenario.

USD/CAD:
- Staying above 0.9815 , the pair is rallying, but within a context of choppy action with bearish bias. So, look for resistance near 0.9960 area.  The market remains bearish below the parity level. Above that is just noise, and we should not consider the bullish scenario until a break back above 1.0050 . The bearish scenario has the 0.9710 area in sight.

AUD/USD:
-
A break below 0.9950 targets 0.98, and possibly 0.9750 . A break above 1.0050 targets 1.0150 . This market is in consolidation . But a break above 1.0150 would be an early signal for a bullish continuation.
-
The bearish scenario does not open up until we break below 0.9550 , which would be the target below 0.9750 .

Gold (XAU/USD):
-
The corrective decline has indeed found support near 1395 , with the low near 1392 , and the consolidation high near 1406.25. If the market extends further correction, the market is still bullish above 1368 area. A break below this suggests a strong correction, and aims again down at the 1310 area.
- The more probable scenario is a rally towards 1430 with the market staying above the the 1368 pivot. A break above 1411 resumes uptrend to at least 1430 .

Silver  (XAG/USD):
-
Gold is consolidating with resistance at 33.40 , and support at 32.40 . A break below the support continues a 3rd corrective wave down, and should find support near 31.30 . Here if the market is still bullish, we should see further continuation towards 36.00 area.

Will CHF/JPY Reach the 2010 Highs? We would love to hear what you think.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , Commodities

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