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Forex: GBP/AUD flirts with lows of multi-week triangle; break of 1.5260 required

By FXstreet.com December 13, 2012, 08:03:00 PM EDT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The dispute between the Pound and the Aussie continues pending resolution at the key level of support circa 1.5260/70, where annoying buying interest avoiding a break lower seems reinforced by an ascending trendline coming from mid Nov low at 1.5185, also sequence of lows from late Nov, Dec 10.

From a multi-week perspective, a 200 pips range box has volatility limited at the lower edge for now, as a triangle pattern from Oct 26 high completes its 8th week int the making, suggesting further depressed volatility in the pair until a break either way.

As technicals stand, it seems as though, risk should be skewed to the downside for an eventual break of 1.5260/70, which may lead to increased downside pressure seeking Nov 14 low at 1.5185. An attempt to move away from lows should encounter an initial bout of offers around 1.5350, Dec 11 high, followed by 1.5380, descending trendline acting as dynamic resistance.

On the fundamental domain, while the UK may face one in three chances of suffering a downgrade should economy weaken beyond expectations, according to S&P, who decided on Thursday to put UK's AAA rating on negative outlook from stable - was actually a 'catch up' with Moody's - , a growing held view is emerging, which advocates for the RBA easing story thought to be taking a pause at 3% for now, despite commentators/banks analysts remains very divided on further cuts down the road.




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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