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Forex Flash: What to expect of EUR/USD? – Commerzbank and Rabobank

By FXstreet.com January 03, 2013, 06:22:00 AM EDT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The shared currency is extending the decline sparked yesterday soon after the cross hit 1.33, falling more than two big figures to levels below 1.3100 during today's European morning.

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, believes the cross has reached some sort of small top in the short term, indicative of a further pullback towards the key area around 1.3000. "Ahead of here lies 1.3061 (38.2% retracement) and the 1.3019 2 month support line. To confirm that the market has topped here we will need a close below the 1.2930 2012-2013 uptrend. We note the divergence of the weekly RSI and this does suggest caution in the up move".

Senior Currency Strategist Jane Foley at Rabobank comments "While there are plenty of reasons to expect pull backs in the coming months, the experience of H2 2012 was that despite poor news, risk appetite held in well. This is likely linked to the continued provision of cheap liquidity from central banks. Given the example of the past few months it is likely that the current pullback in EUR/USD will also be limited. While we have pencilled in the potential of a dip in EUR/USD to the 1.28 level on a 3 mth view, it is probable that most activity in the coming weeks with be held within a EUR/USD1.30 to 1.330 range".




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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