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FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Chicago PMI has just been released and rounds out the regional purchasing managers' indices ahead of next week's national ISM measure. The Chicago PMI has risen to 51.6 from 50.4, slightly beating the consensus forecast of 51.0. There was a big rebound in the new orders component from 45.3 to 54.0, but employment dropped by nearly 10 points, to leave it at its weakest reading since November 2009.

"This very mixed performance has been replicated across the regional PMIs with around half rising and half falling. The consensus is currently looking for the ISM to rise to 50.2 from 49.5 when it is released next Wednesday, but we see some downside potential. It is quite clear that households are becoming very worried about the impact from the fiscal cliff" as indicated by the plunge in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence yesterday." writes Alexander Knightley, an Analyst at ING.

According to Knightley, "We see the risk that the orders and employment component for the national ISM are also weak as the uncertain outlook for demand makes firms more cautious about hiring new workers and building up inventories. Finally, we look for an ISM reading of 48.0 and also see downside risk to the consensus figure for a 150,000 rise in payrolls next Friday."

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