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FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Over the first half of 2012, US households increased their savings rate and it is now back to around its September quarter 2011 level. This puts them on a firmer footing - a positive in terms of future consumption growth. Moreover, lower oil prices also support a moderate strengthening in consumption. According to Antony Kelly, a research analyst at NAB, "In the housing sector, with the inventory of new homes still very low, and new construction well below typical levels, solid-to-strong growth is likely for an extended period."

"The view that the economy will strengthen in time is supported by our US mini-model which incorporates information embedded in various factors including interest rates, equity markets, the exchange rate, oil prices and house prices. Our forecasts are lower than is suggested by over the next several quarters, reflecting an expected slower rate of inventory accumulation, currently weak partial indicators, as well as the heightened level of uncertainty around policy and overseas developments." he adds.

Much of the U.S. is also facing severe drought conditions and while agriculture only makes up around 1% of US GDP, the likely increase in food prices will put some pressure on household budgets. "Nevertheless as the influence of these factors wane, and global economic growth strengthens in 2013, the positive factors supporting a higher rate of growth will reassert themselves." Kelly predicts.

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