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FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The near-term outlook for the AUD has turned negative in the past two trading sessions, leading the ANZ FX Team to close tactical long positions in the AUD/USD at 1.0280. According to Richard Yetsenga, Head of Global Markets Research and Andrew Salter, FX Strategist, "the ripple effects from the turbulence in the Spanish bond market has all the hallmarks of an impending crisis. So it would be unlikely if the diversification flows, which have lent recent support to the AUD, were able to fully counteract the weight of a broadly based 'risk off' event."

Broadly, ANZ says: "We expect some nearterm softness in the AUD, with the notable exception of the EUR/AUD cross. EUR should remain under pressure in a euro-centric crisis and, while the diversification flows may slow up during such an episode, the structural weakness of EUR-crosses should sustain EUR/AUD at very low levels." In a levels sense, ANZ adds: "We expect the currency to remain elevated above the traditional fundamentals for some time. So while the near term outlook may have changed materially, the medium term is favourable. It is not certain where the buying opportunity will come. That depends on the responsiveness of euro zone policymakers and any further slowing in the global economy. Just like in June the base will form quickly and, with hindsight, buying opportunities will look obvious."

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