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Forex Flash: The next serious bout of the EZ crisis will likely be unavoidable - UBS

By FXstreet.com July 04, 2012, 05:26:00 PM EDT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - After the focus on the positive surprise from the EU summit makes its transition towards the next risk event on "to cut or not to cut" by the ECB tomorrow, it seems as though the Euro crisis headlines have somehow moderated, as if a rare stabilisation may have come back to the markets, thus no wonder the high risk beta AUD and NZD have taken no time to factor in this new risk-friendly environment.

However, it all points as if this is merely a short-lived breathing chance for politicians to figure out a proper roadmap to implement recent ambitious measures such as the decision to create a 'single supervisory mechanism' by the end of the year. According to UBS strategist Beat Siegenthaler, "the really difficult decisions arguably still lie ahead, not least regarding the question of who will be given direction regulatory power and who will become the resolution agency." The analyst argues that the next serious bout of the Eurozone crisis will likely be unavoidable some time later this year on controversy over a banking union.

As Beat explains: "These will likely prove highly controversial and political decisions which might well require several more summits to solve. „Germany has been portrayed as the 'loser' of the summit while Spain and Italy were the 'winners'. This could come back to haunt the Eurozone as there might well be a feeling of anger and upset in Germany, which might manifest itself in tougher lines taken at future occasions. The domestic room for manoeuvre for the German government has clearly narrowed over the last few weeks and months and as a result its position has arguably hardened."




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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