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Forex Flash: Near term US weakness but long term growth ahead – Goldman Sachs

By FXstreet.com,  December 13, 2012, 08:07:00 AM EDT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The economics team at Goldman Sachs are expecting below trend US annual growth of 1.8% in 2013 before an acceleration to 2.9% in 2014.

They feel that growth should then remain slightly above that rate in 2015 and 2016. On an annualised sequential basis, the are anticipating a growth slowdown to 1.5% in Q1 2013 and 2% in Q2 before a pick up to 2.5% in the second half of the year. Looking ahead to 2014 and beyond, the are expecting above trend growth at around 3% on average.

In terms of issues ahead their near term weakness, long term growth forecast is based on competing impulses from the private and public sector. They expect the fiscal cliff to be averted, but nevertheless a step up in the pace of fiscal retrenchment to outweigh the ongoing healing in the private sector. In the intermediate and long term, they see further strength in the private sector, led by the ongoing housing recovery, rising business investment and financial rebalancing in the household sector




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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