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Forex Flash: FX speculative positions, market unsure way things will break - NAB

By FXstreet.com July 15, 2012, 07:35:00 PM EDT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - IMM speculative positions data for the week ended Tuesday 10th July showed positioning remains generally neutral, explains NAB Research Team. "EUR shorts and USD longs were extended but even they are not at recent extremes, suggesting market is unsure of just which way things will break" the bank reports.

As read in NAB research note:

"Speculative positioning reflects the recent market funk, with positions still sitting within recent ranges. The week was characterised by relatively inconsistent moves within the positioning data. The risk-off European crisis move was reflected in the largest move of the week; EUR shorts were added to by 19.5k contracts. At -165.7k, positioning in EUR shorts are large, but still shy of the -214k extreme back in early June. The converse of this was the increase in USD longs, back to long-term highs but, again, not the extremes of early June. The market is also more comfortable with the JPY, after the earlier concern regarding the deteriorating external position. In the same theme, GBP shorts were marginally added to, while CAD longs were reduced. The long position in the AUD was more than doubled. This is inconsistent with the broader risk-off move, and the drop in commodity prices during that time. The positioning net balance, at a net long of +19.1k contracts, remains very modest, but it is somewhat inconsistent with the USD, JPY and EUR moves. Similarly, NZD longs were also added to, but remain very limited. We continue to believe that these inconsistencies will be addressed at some point, with the AUD moving lower."




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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