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• Forex Flash: Exchange rate expectations plummet across the board in Australia – NAB

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FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Exchange rate expectations in the Australia plunged across the board in June, according to the recent NAB Quarterly Business Survey, reflecting the weakening trend in the currency during this period. At an aggregate level, firms in the ASX 300 expect the dollar to average USD $0.985 in six months time, down from USD $1.053 in our previous survey)

According to Peter Jolly, Head of Research at NAB, "We note however that expectations are typically closely correlated to current exchange rates, and have limited predictive power." The strongest expectations in the June quarter were recorded in Recreational & Personal Services (REC) and Transport, Utilities & Communications ( TUC ) at USD $0.996 and USD $0.994 respectively, while Manufacturing was also comparatively high at USD $0.99.

In contrast, the lowest recorded sector was Construction, at just USD $0.938 - by far the lowest expectations when compared with other industries. Expectations in the QBS were marginally weaker, at USD $0.978, with ASX 300 REC and TUC recording stronger expectations than in the QBS, while construction was softer. Finally, Jolly notes that "there were divergent trends in hedging this quarter - with an increase in the level of hedging by importers up to 66% of exposure from 50% and a decrease for exporters down 42% from 55%.

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