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Forex Flash: European news mixed – BTMU

By FXstreet.com January 09, 2013, 06:55:00 AM EDT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The mix of good news on the management of the debt crisis and bad news on the economy continued in the euro-zone with Ireland once again showing that investor confidence in the Irish debt market has improved while employment statistics showed how austerity continues to impact the real economy.

Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that yesterday Ireland sold (through syndication) EUR 2.5bn of its 2017 bond after achieving EUR 7.0bn worth of orders. The bonds were priced at a yield of 3.316%. That's 275bps above the equivalent yield in Germany, 25bps above Italy but some 50bps below the equivalent yield in Spain. Ireland is now in a relatively decent position funding-wise for 2013 but the NTMA in Ireland is focusing on raising EUR 10bn this year in order to leave it fully covered for 2014 - the year Ireland is expected to stand on its own after emerging from the bail-out program.

Halpenny writes, "The Irish government - which takes over the EU presidency - is pushing for some restructuring of its bank debt, in particular around the EUR 31bn of promissory notes used for bailing out Anglo Irish Bank, and if successful will clearly add to the improving confidence. Of course, Ireland still has a debt-to-GDP level expected to hit 122% this year and a still very wide government deficit and hence economic growth globally is key."

He feels that the rise in the Eurozone unemployment rate to a record 11.8% underlines the grim economic position faced by the Eurozone in 2013. Still for now, the contained debt crisis is euro supportive and is why he expects the Euro to generally hold above the 1.3000 level against the Dollar over coming months.




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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