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Forex Flash: Euro leaders eye Greek tipping point – Deutsche Bank

By FXstreet.com July 23, 2012, 04:08:00 AM EDT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Investors' worst fears were confirmed after a recently released story by Der Spiegel, in which the IMF is considering ending its support to Greece, raising the risk that the country will become insolvent as early as September. According to a translated version of the report cited in the ekathimerini, "High ranking officials at the Fund have informed the European Union that the IMF is no longer willing to provide Greece with more aid". IMF's patience with Greece is reportedly wearing thin as the Fund is said to be very pessimistic about Greece's ability to reduce its debt/GDP ratio to 120% by 2020.

The same article apparently also reported that euro area leaders regard a Greece euro exit as manageable even though they still want to support the country until the ESM is in operation. German Economy Minister Roesler said overnight that he had "great skepticism" that Greece would be able to fulfill its MoU commitments and added that if Greece does not fulfill its obligations, there shouldn't be any new aid.

Troika officials will resume their review of Greece's progress tomorrow but the final report is not due until September. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, "This raises questions around the ability to redeem the €3.2B Greek bond, due on 20th August and held by the ECB - Greek officials have hinted at the possibility of a bridge loan but EU officials have been resistant." A senior EU official said Greece is likely to be forced to raise money on the short-term bills market to bridge this gap. The ECB has said it will re-assess the eligibility of Greek collateral after the Troika's review.




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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