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Forex Flash: Dove rules at the FOMC – BBH

By FXstreet.com December 13, 2012, 04:02:00 AM EDT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman comments that yesterday evening, the Federal Reserve was as aggressively dovish as was expected.

He notes that the bank added $45bln a month in US Treasury purchases to QE, keeping the $40bln a month of MBS purchases currently in place. It also changed from time reference for guidance to use of inflation and even there it is dovish, indicating rates will remain low as long as inflation is below 2.5% and unemployment is above 6.5%.

Chandler notes that is was the main focus of his statement and the general economic assessment seemed little changed and Lacker continued with his dissent, opposing the new asset purchases and the "characterisation of conditions" that exceptionally low interest rates would be justified.

He writes, "The euro had been bid just prior to the FOMC statement on news that Berlusconi indicated he may withdraw his candidacy if Monti would run. The FOMC announcement saw the dollar decline across the board. Treasury yields rose. The 30-year yield was already at one month highs prior to the FOMC outcome. The 5-year/5-year forward that Fed officials has sometimes cited for a measure of inflation expectations was near 18 month highs and spiked higher on the announcement. The equity market advanced on the news."

Chandler finishes by concluding that the expansion of the open-end QE is not surprising. He suspects that there may be some disappointment that the Fed did not boost its MBS purchases and had previously suggested that the Fed may not have double downed on QE. He writes, "The move to macro-economic guidance has been discussed, but most thought it likely to be adopted in early 2013. The guidance is such that it reinforces the idea that the Fed will not be raising rates in for some time--not in 2013, and not in 2014 and maybe not even in 2015."




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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