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Forex Flash: Doubts surrounding the fortitude of NZ economy hurts NZD/USD – BNZ

By FXstreet.com,  August 13, 2012, 05:08:00 AM EDT

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Doubts about the strength of the New Zealand economy saw the NZD/USD finish last week towards the bottom end of the familiar 0.8100-0.8230 range. However, according to Mike Jones, a Research Analyst at BNZ, "the optimism that central banks will be able to patch up the global economy with policy stimulus kept global asset markets frothy last week - our global risk appetite index (long-run average of 50%) spent the week bubbling around 70%."

So the global backdrop remains highly supportive of the 'risk-sensitive' NZD. However, the NZD lost a little support from the domestic backdrop last week. The Q2 HLFS labor market report was disappointing on all fronts. The unemployment rate increased to +6.8%, confounding expectations for a fall. Friday's July spending figures were hardly inspiring either, falling -0.6% MoM. "Last week's data disappointments may be enough to further delay the RBNZ rate hikes we expect - we are now assessing the case for shifting our rate hike call from March to June." writes Jones.

In the interim, markets have already moved and local swap rates fell last week as markets again moved to price a small chance of an RBNZ rate cut in coming months. The associated reduction in the NZD's yield advantage weighed on the NZD last week. NZ-US 3-year swap differentials dipped from 240bps to 225bps.




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Forex and Currencies

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