Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: May 5 - 9


Shutterstock photo - - The euro pared back losses against the dollar on Friday to finish almost unchanged after the latest U.S. employment showed stronger-than-forecast jobs growth but also pointed to weak earnings growth and a steep decline in labor force participation.

EUR/USD fell to lows of 1.3812 before recovering to trade at 1.3869 by the close of Friday's session. For the week, the pair edged up 0.12%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3811, Friday's low and resistance at 1.3900.

The dollar initially strengthened against the euro after the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs in April, well above expectations for jobs growth of 210,000. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to a five and a half year low of 6.3%, compared to expectations for 6.6%.

But the dollar gave back gains after the report also showed that the labor force participation rate, which measures the proportion of people either working or looking for work, fell to 62.8% from 63.2% in March.

In addition, average wage growth edged down in April from the same month a year earlier, dampening the medium term inflation outlook.

The report came after preliminary data on Wednesday showed that U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of just 0.1% in the first three months of the year, well below forecasts for an expansion of 1.2%.

Despite the sharp slowdown in growth the Federal Reserve said Wednesday it would reduce its bond purchases to $45 billion a month. The Fed also said interest rates would remain on hold at record lows for a "considerable time" after the bond-buying program ends later this year.

The U.S. central bank acknowledged that first quarter growth was far weaker than expected, but added that growth had started to pick up in recent weeks.

The weak U.S. growth data helped the euro rebound from three-week lows against the dollar.

The euro fell against the dollar after a report showed that the annual rate of euro zone inflation ticked up to 0.7% in April from a record low of 0.5% in March, falling short of expectations for in increase to 0.8%. The European Central Bank targets an inflation rate of close to but just below 2%.

The slight uptick in consumer prices did ease pressure on the ECB to implement further monetary easing measures to tackle low inflation in the region.

In the week ahead, market participants will be focusing on Thursday's ECB monetary policy announcement. Investors will be looking ahead to Monday's report on U.S. service sector activity and Wednesday's testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on monetary policy and the economy.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 5

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on service sector activity.

Tuesday, May 6

The euro zone is to produce data on retail sales, while Spain is to release reports on employment and service sector activity. Italy is also to publish service sector data.

The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Wednesday, May 7

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish data on factory orders.

Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, in Washington.

Thursday, May 8

Germany is to publish a report on industrial production.

The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, May 9

In the euro zone, Germany is to round up the week with data on the trade balance. offers an extensive set of professional tools for the financial markets.
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This article appears in: Investing , Forex and Currencies

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