Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: July 28 - August 1

A A A - - The euro fell to eight month lows against the stronger dollar on Friday and was close to multi-month lows against the yen and the pound as concerns over the divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and other central banks pressured the single currency lower.

EUR/USD was down 0.25% to 1.3429 at the close, reaching the lowest level since November. For the week, the pair lost 0.74%.

The pair is likely to find support at around 1.3400 and resistance at 1.3475.

The drop in the euro came after a report showed that Germany's Ifo business climate index dropped to 108.0 in July, missing estimates for a reading of 109.4. It was the third consecutive monthly decline.

The data added concerns over the outlook for the euro zone's largest economy. The euro has come under pressure since the ECB cut rates to record lows on June 5, in a bid to stave off the risk of deflation and shore up growth in the region.

Sentiment on the single currency was also hit by concerns that tougher sanctions on Russia would have a negative impact on the outlook for growth in the currency bloc, which has close trade ties with Moscow.

The greenback was boosted as better than expected data on durable goods orders for June added to signs that the U.S. economy is improving.

The Commerce Department reported a rise of 0.7% in orders of long lasting goods such as machinery and electronic products, compared to forecasts of 0.5%. Durable goods orders fell by 1.0% in May.

Demand for the dollar has been underpinned since Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen indicated earlier this month that U.S. interest rates could rise sooner if the recovery in the labor market continues.

Elsewhere Friday, EUR/JPY was down 0.23% to 136.75 late Friday, not far from the five month lows of 136.35 reached in the previous session.
EUR/GBP slid 0.18% to 0.7910, not far from Wednesday's 22-month low of 0.7873.

In the week ahead investors will be focusing on U.S. data on second-quarter gross domestic product and an interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, while Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for July will also be closely watched.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer prices on Thursday.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 28

The U.S. is to release data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 29

The U.S. is to publish reports on house price inflation and consumer confidence.

Wednesday, July 30

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, while Spain is to publish flash estimates on consumer inflation and second quarter economic growth.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government's nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to publish revised data on second quarter growth.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, July 31

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and unemployment, while Germany is to publish data on retail sales and unemployment.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area.

Friday, August 1

The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity. offers an extensive set of professional tools for the financial markets.
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This article appears in: Investing , Forex and Currencies

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