FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Euro closed the week 0.49%
below opening price action against the US Dollar, losing around 60
pips on the day and 130 on the week. The EUR/USD extended its
decline this week after rejecting the 1.3170 double top in 14 and
The so-called ECB-inspired rally above the 1.31 mark has been
retraced. According to Carolin Hecht, economist at Commerzbank, the
implied 1-year volatility in the pair is rising, which has led to
the adjustment of the bank's outlook for EUR/USD.
"As a result, the euro zone crisis remains a negative factor for
the euro," explains Ms. Hecht. "We have nonetheless adjusted our
EUR/USD outlook slightly upwards as the Fed's announcement of an
unlimited QE3 programme is weighing on the USD."
Camilla Sutton, Chief Currency Strategist at Scotiabank has also
updated her EUR/USD forecast. In the short-term, her outlook is
neutral, as the 200-day (1.2825) holds as support, which is
encouraging for bulls: "We have updated our to reflect this;
increasing our target for Q412 to 1.26 and leaving our target for
Q413 unchanged at 1.21,"she says in a research note.
According to the latest Chicago Mercantile Exchange CFTC report,
Euro positioning is the least bearish in a year. "One way to
interpret that is that it's negative for euro, because there are
fewer shorts to squeeze," says Forexlive.com analyst Adam Button.
"But I would be cautious of that interpretation because -50K is
still a sizable position, even if it's the lowest net negative in a
The FXstreet.com Brokers, Experts and big banks have accepted the
uptrend in the Euro and expect higher values one month ahead. The
forecast Sentiment Index shows 1.2962 in 1-week frame, 1.2998 in
1-month and 1.2821 in 1 quarter.
Nevertheless, Nomura Strategist Saeed Amen is bullish on the pair
and sees it ranging through next week. Looking at a daily chart, he
notes that spot's bounce back higher off the 200D SMA and 20D SMA
suggests that price has reached a base. He continues, "also the
tick back higher in the RSI (14) suggests a short-term low.
Bandwidth has fallen, suggesting ranging price action. Hence a
retracement in the range back higher looks likely." Amen has set a
target of 1.3050.
In terms of fundamental data. Investors must pay attention to
Thursday Oct 4 ECB monetary policy decision. Also the BoE decision
on interest rate and the Asset Purchase Facility size, The RBA
decision, the FOMC minutes but specially the EMployment report that
will be released Friday Oct 5.