) car market share in North America is seeing a recovery after
declining during 2007-08 due to the global economic crisis. The
company's share has increased from an estimated 8% in 2007 to 10%
in 2009 and we expect this trend to continue, led by factors like:
1) shifting sales mix toward smaller cars 2) Adoption of "One Ford"
strategy to help streamline costs.
Ford competes with
(NYSE:DAI), Honda (
), and Toyota (
) in the automobile market. While we expect Ford's share will
reach 13% by 2017, the Trefis community predicts a higher share of
16%, which corresponds to a 5% upside for our estimate for F
We currently have a
Trefis price estimate of $14.26 for Ford's
, about 12% below the current market price of $16.28.
Changing Sales Mix Toward Smaller Cars
Rising fuel prices are encouraging consumers to move toward
smaller, more environmentally friendly and fuel-efficient cars. The
share of cars in the US sales mix has increased from around 31% in
2005 to almost 37% in 2009, and we expect this trend to positively
impact Ford's car sales and hence market share.
"One Ford" Vision to Improve Production, Control
Ford is focusing on developing a new business and advertising
model under the vision of "One Ford." The purpose of this is to
downsize regional brands and remove global segmentation, thereby
reducing costs. Another area of focus in launching new Ford
vehicles globally with better advertising and marketing programs.
The aim of this slogan is to build cars that will appeal to both
American and European consumers alike.
Ford is aggressively moving toward making smaller and
fuel-efficient cars from the larger SUVs and trucks. The company
plans investment of roughly $14 billion in the U.S. on advanced
technologies to improve fuel efficiency by over 25%.
The Trefis community projects Ford's car share in North America
to rise from around 12% in 2010 to above 15% by 2016, compared to
the Trefis estimate of growth from around 11% to almost 13% during
the same period. The member estimates imply an upside of 5% to the
Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock.
complete analysis for Ford's stock is here