Michael Johnston
submits:
When constructing a portfolio, most investors focus on the
decisions that seem to have the most significant impact on the
risk/return profile delivered. How much should be allocated to
stocks vs. bonds? What breakdown between developed and emerging
markets is desired? What sectors should be overweight, and which
should be avoided?
1. Weighting Methodologies
Many ETF investors pay a great deal of attention to certain
attributes of their equity exposure, such as the size and location
of the underlying firms. Some details, such as the weighting
methodology used to determine the weights assigned to the
underlying holdings of a fund, can be easy to overlook. But the
manner in which weightings are computed by an underlying index can
actually have a major impact on the returns of an ETF, suggesting
that perhaps more consideration should be afforded to selection of
an appropriate methodology.
Consider the following six ETFs that offer exposure to large cap
U.S. equities. While the composition of all ETFs isn't identical,
the overlap between these funds is considerable (in some cases,
such as RSP / SPY / RWL, the underlying holdings are identical).
But the returns generated by these funds in 2010 were very, very
different:
| ETF |
Weighting |
2010 Gain |
| S&P Equal Weight ETF (
RSP
) |
Equal |
21.4% |
| FTSE RAFI U.S. 1000 (
PRF
) |
RAFI |
19.7% |
| RevenueShares Large Cap ETF (
RWL
) |
Revenue |
16.4% |
| WisdomTree Large Cap Dividend (
DLN
) |
Dividend |
15.0% |
| S&P 500 SPDR (
SPY
) |
RSP |
15.0% |
| WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund (EPS) |
Earnings |
13.3% |
The delta between RSP and SPY-more than 600 basis
points-demonstrates the importance of weighting methodologies. Both
funds invest in the stocks that make up the S&P 500; SPY
weights according to market capitalization, while RSP gives an
equal weighting to each component. That may seem like a relatively
minor distinction, but it translates into a considerable difference
in return.
It should be noted that the above table reflects results for a
relatively short period of time (one year). While it isn't safe to
assume that equal weighting will always outperform cap weighting or
that earnings-weighting will always be a laggard, it is fair to
conclude that the weighting methodology employed can have a
significant impact on return.
2. Style vs. Pure Style
One of the simplest and most common ways to bifurcate stocks
involves breaking up the universe of equities into growth companies
and value companies. Value companies are those that feature low
price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios and high dividend
yields. Growth companies are those that feature higher valuation
multiples and lower dividend yields (which are often accompanied by
greater prospects for future earnings growth).
This classification system logically leads to investment
strategies; some investors believe that value companies perform
better in certain environments while growth companies will
outperform in others. And of course there are a number of ETFs
offering exposure to both value and growth subsets of various
market capitalization tiers. Generally, the makeup of these funds
will be similar. But the following table might be a bit
surprising:
| ETF |
Index |
2010 Gain |
| Rydex S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF (RPG) |
S&P 500/Citigroup Pure Growth Index |
26.9% |
| iShares S&P 500 Growth Index Fund (IVW) |
S&P 500/Citigroup Growth Index |
14.9% |
This one might leave you scratching your head as well:
| ETF |
Index |
2010 Gain |
| Rydex S&P SmallCap 600 Pure Value ETF (RZV) |
S&P SmallCap 600/Citigroup Pure Value Index |
28.6% |
| iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index Fund (IJS) |
S&P SmallCap 600/Citigroup Value Index |
24.7% |
The funds appear to be quite similar, but the performances last
year indicate otherwise. A closer look reveals the discrepancies
between a value ETF from iShares and a pure value ETF from
Rydex.
IVW has 327 individual holdings. The value counterpart-the
S&P 500 Value Index Fund (IVE)-has 339. Since both funds offer
exposure to subsets of the S&P 500, it doesn't take a
mathematician to conclude that there must be some overlap between
the two; some S&P 500 constituents are included in both the
growth and value funds.
RPG, on the other hand, has about 125 holdings, as does the
large cap value counterpart (RPV). These funds focus on the
companies that exhibit strong growth or value characteristics,
leaving out those that don't fall clearly into one category or the
other. Again, it seems like a relatively minor distinction. But the
impact on returns can clearly be significant.
Of course, it shouldn't be assumed that the pure style
strategies will always outperform the more inclusive style funds.
And there are of course diversification benefits to maintaining a
larger base of holdings for certain investors. But the point is
quite clear; not all growth or value funds are created equal.
3. Small Caps vs. Large Caps
A domestic equity portfolio consisting entirely of the stocks
that make up the S&P 500 would likely flunk the
"diversification test" of many investors; including mid cap and
small cap stocks has the potential to add both diversification and
return enhancement benefits. Yet when it comes to international
exposure, some investors are content to limit their exposure to the
largest of the large companies listed on non-U.S. exchanges.
The most popular international equity ETFs tend to be tilted
towards large cap stocks, since the underlying indexes are often
cap-weighted benchmarks that consist of the biggest companies in
that market. Large cap equity ETFs may be susceptible to a couple
of biases. Because the underlying holdings tend to be
multi-national companies that generate revenues around the world,
the link between the local economy and the performance may be
weakened (Coca-Cola (KO), for example, generates the majority of
its revenue from outside the U.S.). Second, large cap equity ETFs
tend to be tilted towards certain sectors and away from others.
Because the largest companies in many economies are banks and oil
firms, many large cap international ETFs have considerable exposure
to the energy and financial sectors.
In recent years, a number of small cap international ETFs have
popped up, and many have drawn significant interest from investors.
And, as last year's performance shows, the risk/return profile
between large caps and small caps can be considerable:
| Region |
Large Cap |
Small Cap |
| Emerging Markets ([[EEM]], [[EWX]]) |
16.5% |
23.5% |
| Developed Markets ([[VEA]], [[SCZ]]) |
8.3% |
21.5% |
| China ([[FXI]], [[HAO]]) |
3.5% |
14.2% |
| Brazil ([[EWZ]], [[BRF]]) |
4.2% |
24.1% |
| Japan ([[EWJ]], [[SCJ]]) |
13.6% |
19.1% |
As the table above indicates, 2010 was a pretty good year for
small caps; some ETFs focusing on this corner of the market
outperformed large cap counterparts by close to 20%. Again, this
won't necessarily be the case every year-large caps will outperform
small caps in certain environments-but the massive return gaps is
clear evidence that exposure to international equities is not
binary. There are a number of different options, and the difference
in return (and risk) between large caps and small caps is
significant.
4. Hedged vs. Not-Hedged
When considering the primary performance drivers of
international equity ETFs, most U.S. investors would focus on the
health of the local economy, consumer confidence, unemployment,
etc. But for the vast majority of international stock funds, the
performance of the relevant country's currency can also have a big
impact on bottom line returns. A declining euro, for example, will
erode the value of the stocks that make up many of the funds in the
European Equities ETFdb Category, just as a strong yen would give a
boost to the members of the Japan Equities ETFdb Category.
Most portfolios maintain considerable exposure to exchange rate
movements, whether investors know it or not. And while the impact
of currency valuations on stock returns will often be minor, it can
be material in certain environments.
Currently, there are a couple ETFs out there that hedge out
currency exposure. WisdomTree's Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ), for
example, seeks to provide exposure to equity securities in Japan,
while at the same time hedging exposure to fluctuations between the
value of the U.S. dollar and and the Japanese yen. Between the
adoption of this strategy in April 2010 and the end of that year,
DXJ lost about 7.5%-reflecting a poor performance for Japanese
stocks. During that same period, the iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund
(EWJ) was up about 5.7%; the losses suffered by Japanese equities
were more than offset by an appreciation of the Japanese yen.
The currency hedging isn't the only difference between EWJ and
DXJ, but the stocks that make up these ETFs are generally similar.
As shown by the big performance delta last year, the "currency
effect" on international equity ETFs can be significant. WisdomTree
also offers HEDJ, essentially a currency hedged EAFE ETF that makes
an interesting option for investors looking to invest in European
stocks but concerned about the potential impact of a troubled
euro.
5. Front Month vs. Balanced
By now, most investors are well aware that the returns generated
by futures-based commodity ETFs aren't likely to be identical to
the change in the spot price of the underlying resource, especially
over an extended period of time. The slope of the futures curve can
have a major impact on the performance of commodity ETPs; when
markets are contangoed these products can lag behind the
hypothetical spot return, while a backwardated futures markets can
give an extra boost to a futures-based strategy.
But for certain commodities, there are differences among the way
in which various futures-based products achieve and maintain
exposure. Many of the most popular products invest in front-month
futures contracts, as these securities tend to exhibit the
strongest correlation to spot prices. This strategy will also
require the fund to "roll" its holdings regularly in order to avoid
taking possession of the underlying assets (which can be a good or
a bad thing, depending on the slope of the futures curve). The
United States Oil Fund (USO) is one such product; it invests in
front month NYMEX crude oil contracts.
There are options for futures-based commodity exposure that
don't involve investing exclusively in closest-to-expiration
contracts. The holdings of the United States 12 Month Oil Fund
(USL), for example, generally consist of the near month contract to
expire and the contracts for the following eleven months, for a
total of 12 consecutive months' contracts. Such a strategy will
generally
result in a weaker response to changes in spot prices as well as
less vulnerability to the impact of the slope of the futures
curve.
Both products invest in NYMEX crude oil futures contracts, but
the risk/return profiles are far from identical. Last year, USL
added about 6.5% as crude prices spikes. USO actually lost ground
on the year (less than 1%), as the adverse impact of a contangoed
futures markets canceled out the run-up in crude prices. For an
investor who maintained exposure to crude oil last year, the
decision of how to weight futures contract maturities was worth
about 700 basis points.
Disclosure:
Author long BRF
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