Thinking about refinancing your home or buying a new car in
2013? Good news: interest rates will be on your side. The Federal
Reserve announced Wednesday that it will continue to keep the
federal funds rate target near zero -- and is unlikely to raise the
federal funds rate until the unemployment rate is below 6.5
That means interest rates on everything from mortgages to
automobiles will likely remain at record lows for some time. The
unemployment rate just barely slipped below 8 percent for the first
time since 2009 in October, and experts say that the most recent
drop in the unemployment rate is partially due to so many people
dropping out of the labor force. If those consumers decide that the
economy has improved enough to start looking for a job again, the
unemployment rate -- which is currently at 7.9 percent -- could
"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee
met in October suggests that economic activity and employment have
continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from
weather-related disruptions," said the Fed in a post-meeting
statement. "Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat
since the summer, it remains elevated. Household spending has
continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further
signs of improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has
In light of the of the weak economic data and stable outlook for
inflation, members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee
(FOMC) voted to keep the federal funds rate target -- which helps
set the rate at which banks trade balances held at the Federal
Reserve -- at 0 percent to 0.25 percent.
Moody's Analytics projects that unemployment would reach the 6.5
percent threshold about the first quarter of 2015, or about the
same timeframe as the Fed had previously set for maintaining a
period of exceptionally low interest rates. But linking rate policy
to unemployment, instead of a date on the calendar, gives the Fed
more flexibility to respond to conditions, Moody's economic
research director Marisa DiNatale said.
The Fed hopes that keeping rates at record lows for the
foreseeable future will inspire more consumers to buy a new home,
refinance their existing mortgage or borrow cash to buy a new car,
say experts. The Fed is also trying to encourage more businesses to
invest in supplies -- or hire new workers -- by making loans more
affordable than ever.
The Fed's monetary policy has even made credit cards slightly
cheaper to borrow with, thanks to a record low prime rate that's
tied to the federal funds rate. The majority of credit cards in the
U.S., as well as other variable rate loans, such as car loans, are
tied to the U.S. prime rate, which is typically 3 percentage points
above the federal funds rate. When the Fed raises or lowers the
federal funds rate target, borrowers' interest rates usually go up
or down as well.
The Fed's success with spurring more people to borrow, however,
has been mixed, say experts.
"The Federal Reserve is basically trying to do everything it can
to get this economy back to recovery," says Don Dutkowsky, a
professor of economics at the Maxwell School of Public Affairs at
Syracuse University. But "with this type of economy, with this type
of sluggishness, the effectiveness of their tools is somewhat
The Fed's latest round of bond-buying, which the Fed also voted
to extend Wednesday, may spur a boost in confidence in some by
signaling to investors, businesses and perhaps even consumers that
at least something is being done to encourage economic growth, says
Dutkowsky. That, in turn, could have a positive effect on the U.S.
economy at a time when policymakers appear to have little appetite
for spending government funds on additional economic stimulus, he
"Somebody is monitoring the economy," says Dutkowsky. "Somebody
is concerned about the high unemployment rate and the sluggish
growth and has put that in the priority of policymaking."
That's a big improvement from the U.S. legislature, he says,
which is still stuck in a contentious fight over what to do about
the country's budget deficit and about how best to avert the
so-called fiscal cliff, an automatic series of spending cuts and
tax hikes scheduled for Jan. 1.
"The government seems to be stuck on the fiscal cliff," says
Dutkowsky. "It doesn't seem they have talked much about how to
remedy the economy and get this unemployment rate down to where it
needs to be."
The Fed continues to face steep economic
Experts expect that the Fed will continue to make boosting the
economy with record low rates a top priority in 2013.
Already it has kept the federal funds rate target at rock-bottom
since 2008. However, forces outside the Fed's control, such as
consumers' and small businesses' weak appetite for credit has made
it tough for the Fed's policies to make much of an impact.
For example, the growth in consumer borrowing over the past four
years has largely been powered by an explosion in student loan
debt, says Rebel Cole, a professor of finance at DePaul University.
Credit card debt has increased somewhat, but not by much, according
to data from the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, the number of people buying new homes and automobiles
has improved, but not at the rate the economy needs to spur more
robust growth. Even consumer spending, which improved substantially
over the summer before dipping somewhat in the fall, is not strong
enough to push the economy out of the trough it's been in since
2008, say experts.
"Small businesses need customers, not credit," says DePaul
University's Cole. Businesses aren't borrowing because they don't
have a regular customer base they can count on, he says.
Many small businesses are also waiting to hire new workers until
after they have more certainty about what their taxes will be like
after the first of the year, he says.
"Uncertainty about the much-discussed tax overhaul has indeed
created a great deal of uncertainty that has impacted capital
investment and hiring decisions," says Cole, referring to
discussions about the "fiscal cliff."
"Small business owners have no idea what their tax rates will be
in coming years, except higher," says Cole. "More importantly, they
have no idea what is going to happen to capital gains, which are
scheduled to go up, and potentially could go back to the same as
ordinary income ... This could have a major adverse impact on
investment, especially in real estate. Add in the uncertainty about
the thousands of targeted tax credits, all of which are on the
table, and you have a prescription for procrastination until 2014,"
Consumers, meanwhile, are facing a tough lending environment,
says Cole, that makes it difficult to secure a loan, even if they
With mortgage rates at historic lows, "many people would be
buying, refinancing or buying if they could qualify for a
mortgage," says Cole.
However, many lenders are keeping their lending standards tight,
he says, and are reserving the best mortgage rates for consumers
with pristine credit.
So for many customers, "even if they get approved, they're not
going to get approved for something like a 3 percent mortgage.
They're going to get approved for a 6 percent mortgage."