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Emerging Markets Week Ahead: Is Optimism over a Greek Deal Just a Trojan Horse?

By Emerging Money February 19, 2012, 10:53:19 PM EDT

The wait may be over for a formalization of the 130-billion-euro aid package for Greece to avoid a default in March. Bloomberg reports on Saturday that the Greek government has found the additional cuts to bring spending down to $427 million, a requirement led by Germany as part of further aid.

Though finance ministers still must meet on the actual agreement there seems little doubt as Greece has worked to meet demands. Investors should be cautious as some in the Greek parliament have publicly acknowledged the need to renegotiate terms after elections this year.

Of just as much importance to this week's markets is China's second cut of bank reserve ratio requirements in three months. In a move that may add an estimated $63 billion into the financial system, bank reserve ratios will be decreased by 50 basis points (0.5%) on February 24.

Earnings continue this week and the central banks of Turkey and Colombia will make rate decisions. Though a formalized aid package to Greece may take some short-term pressures off the eurozone crisis, the region's banks still must rollover a considerable amount of maturing debt during the rest of the first half.

Shares in the S&P500 were volatile last week falling heavily on Wednesday only to finish up 0.7% for the week. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ( EEM ) was able to outperform the U.S.index and finished up 0.9% on the week. Markets seem torn between optimism and information that is less bad out of Europe and an already strong run in equities on a still weak U.S.economy.

Monday, February 20

The Central Bank of Turkey is due to release its one-week repurchase rate on Monday but is not expected to change rates from 5.75 percent. Inflation last year ended well above the bank's 5.5% target at just over ten percent. A weakening economic environment in Europe will limit the bank's ability to tighten policy to bring down inflation, hoping that slower growth will bring down pricing pressures.

CTRIP.com International ( CTRP ) reports earnings before the market opens and is expected to show profits of $0.26 per share, representing a 13.3% decrease over the same period last year and 21.2% less than the most recent quarter. The online hotel and airline ticket aggregator has come under pressure lately with other Chinese internet and media companies but still trades at 21.1 times trailing earnings.

Tuesday, February 21

China Real Estate Information Corp ( CRIC ) reports earnings before market open and is expected to show a sharp decrease in income per share. Expectations of between $0.04 and $0.07 are well below last quarter's release of $0.10 and $0.12 reported for the fourth quarter last year.

Chinese online game developer, Shanda Games Ltd ( GAME ) will report fourth quarter earnings after market close and is expected to show a decrease from last quarter to $0.17 per share. Shares are down almost half from their 52-week high of $7.64 and trade at 5.2 times trailing earnings.

Wednesday, February 22

Mexico is expected to show a steep drop in growth of retail sales in December compared to November's report. November sales rose 7.5%, the most in more than six years, on domestic demand and a nationwide push by the government to spur domestic spending. Sales for December are expected to show a more moderate growth of 4.2% though the headline risk is to the downside as consumers react to the higher spending in the previous month.

MercadoLibre ( MELI ) is expected to report approximately $0.51 per share after market close, representing an increase of 41.6% over the same quarter last year. The Latin American online commerce platform has benefited from a rise of the middle class throughout the region but trades at an expensive 59.2 times trailing earnings.

Qihoo 360 Technology ( QIHU ) is engaged in internet and mobile security and other internet services in China. The company is expected to report earnings of $0.11 after market close.

Ternium S.A. ( TX ) is expected to report earnings of $0.56 per share before market open, well above last quarter's report of $0.03 and a gain of $0.39 per share during the same period last year. The Latin American steel company generates approximately 57% of its revenues from the U.S.and 43% from Central and South America. Shares trade at 8.8 times trailing earnings and pay a 3.5% dividend yield.

Thursday, February 23

Poland retail sales are expected to rebound from the previous 8.6% disappointment in December to around 11% as consumer confidence continues to support slower export growth. Though the market is expecting an increase, the headline risk is to a surprise decrease as unemployment has been increasing lately. December sales surprised to the downside from 12.6% growth in November.

Colombian industrial production is expected to show signs of slowing from last month's pace of 6.6 percent. Expectations are for a decrease to around 5.5% on tighter monetary policy decisions by the central bank.

Colombia will also report retail sales for last month and is expected to show an increase to around 4.0% from last month's 1.3% annualized growth. Despite eight rate increases since the beginning of 2011, consumer credit continues to grow in excess of 20 percent per year.

E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc ( DANG ) is widely expected to show a loss of around $0.17 per share on Thursday. The online retail company is benefitting from the government's attempts to spur consumer demand but is not expected to be profitable over coming quarters.

Tenaris S.A. ( TS ) reports earnings before market open with expectations of $0.66 per share, more than 20 percent over the most recent quarter.

Friday, February 24

The Central Bank of Colombia will announce its overnight lending rate with many expecting a 25 basis point (0.25%) increase to 5.25 percent. The bank recently announced that it was looking at measures to moderate growth other than increasing rates. While the series of rate increases have helped to bring inflation down to target, the peso has appreciated by 7.7 percent this year putting pressure on exporters. While the market is expecting an increase in rates, the headline risk is to no change and weakness in the peso.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S.A. ( ASR ) is expected to report earnings of around $0.80 per share on Friday, below last quarter's $0.88 but slightly higher than the same period last year. The Mexican airport operator services locations in the Southeast with passenger and cargo services. Shares of the $1.9 billion company trade at just below 17 times trailing earnings and pay a 3.75% dividend yield.




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, International, Stocks

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