Emerging markets week ahead

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The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ( EEM , quote ) fell 2% last week, matching the drop in the S&P500 on the negative payrolls report on Friday. With Europe firmly in a recession and the Chinese economic engine slowing, investors have been looking to the recovery in the United States to carry equity prices.

Recent moderation in data had lowered expectations to a reading of about 160,000 jobs created in April, but the release of only 115,000 jobs was enough to send markets tumbling.

While the manufacturing ISM report came in much better than expected at 54.8 on Tuesday, it should be remembered that manufacturing accounts for only about 10% of non-farm employment in the United States.

The non-manufacturing ISM, declining from 56.0 to 53.5 in April, and the weekly unemployment claims were much better previews of Friday's non-farm payroll report. Despite the weaker data over the last month, the U.S.economy still looks to expand around 2.0% for the year and should help drive stocks.

With a slow week in economic reports out of the U.S.and Europe this week, the emerging markets will be waiting for news out of China on Thursday and Friday. Investors will be watching Chinese trade data on Thursday for strength in exports and a clue into global economic growth. Friday will bring a string of reports including new yuan loans, industrial production, and pricing pressures.

Important in these will be an expected decrease in the consumer price index. An eagerly anticipated cut in the reserve requirement ratio will be more probable if consumer prices hold at growth of less than 3.5% on an annualized basis.

Monday, May 7

Slower growth in industrial production and a 2.6% decrease in copper production will bring Chile's economic activity index down to around 4.5%, despite strong growth in retail sales. Economic activity has come in higher than 5% since November but is now showing signs that sluggish global economic growth is slowing demand for exports and commodity prices. The trend confirms an update on Latin American markets last week suggesting that investors look more to consumer goods and services for growth this year.

Indonesian GDP growth may moderate somewhat to 6.32% but will still see some of the fastest growth in the region this year. While political uncertainty and severely outdated infrastructure is still a risk, the country's middle class has almost tripled in the last ten years. Further, domestic consumption accounts for 55% of GDP, meaning the country is less exposed to weakening global growth than others in the region.

Airmedia Group ( AMCN , quote ) reports earnings after the close on Monday.

Tuesday, May 8

Brazil may show that inflation picked up last month with the FGV inflation report increasing to 0.88% against last month's 0.56% increase. The central bank has largely abandoned its mandate for stable prices in favor of rates close to historic lows and aggressive currency manipulation. The government changed laws on Friday that guarantee a minimum rate on deposit accounts in a move that will allow rates to be lowered further.

Reporting earnings on Tuesday are MercadoLibre ( MELI , quote ) and VisionChina Media ( VISN , quote ).

Wednesday, May 9

Expectations are for no change in the base rate when the National Bank of Poland meets on Wednesday.

Inflationary pressures in Mexico may fall further as the CPI comes down to about 3.5% on an annualized basis.

Reporting earnings on Wednesday are 51Jobs ( JOBS , quote ), Bancolombia ( CIB , quote ), Copa Holdings ( COPA , quote ), Teva Pharmaceutical ( TEVA , quote ) and ChinaCache Intl Holdings ( CCIH , quote ).

Thursday, May 10

Central banks in Peru and Indonesia decide rates on Thursday but are expected to hold at 4.25% and 5.75% respectively. Economic growth has moderated with weakness in global markets but is still higher than most others in the respective regions. Both countries have seen a decrease in inflationary pressures due largely to lower food and energy prices.

The market is expecting the Bank of Korea to raise rates to 3.5% when it meets on Thursday after almost a year of holding rates at 3.25%. The risk is firmly to no change as exports have fallen for two consecutive months and the government lowered expectations for growth to 3.5% last month.

China's trade surplus is expected to increase to $9.8 billion against last month's reading of $5.35 billion. Investors will be more focused on relative growth in imports and exports, expected to increase by 10.9% and 8.5% respectively. An increase in exports below expectations could send the markets down on renewed fears of weak global growth and its affect on China's economy.

Reporting earnings on Thursday are Xinyuan Real Estate ( XIN , quote ) and Zhongpin ( HOGS , quote ).

Friday, May 11

Inflationary pressures in China should fall further with expectations for a decline in the CPI to 3.4% (3.6% prior) and the PPI at -0.5% (-0.3% prior).

China industrial production is expected to increase slightly from 11.9% to growth of 12.1% on an annualized basis.

China retail sales should hold at a strong pace of 15.1% annualized growth. While economic growth in the country continues above 8%, the government has promised further stimulus measures to achieve growth in domestic consumption. If retail sales were to come in below expectations and consumer inflation continues to moderate, investors should position themselves for a short-term bounce as the central bank enacts stimulus.

New yuan loans in China will most likely decrease over last month's strong gains of CNY1,010 billion to around CNY780 billion but will still show that previous stimulus measures are working their way through the economy.

Renesola LTD ( SOL , quote ) reports first quarter earnings before the open on Friday.



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , International , Stocks

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