Emerging markets vs. domestic markets – What now that the horse has left the barn


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Emerging markets vs. domestic markets.  Now that the horse has left the barn is it really time to close the doors?  The day after the Fed meeting last week Thursday's - emerging markets ( EEM , quote ) hit a low against the S&P 500 ( SPY , quote ) that took it the final thrust level it hit on October 24 th  2008 in the midst of the global crisis.

The move on Thursday was  based on the anxiety of large capital flows that would soon flee emerging market assets are large investors close out carry trade positions.

Today, listening to too a bunch of guys sit around and tell me that Brazil has problems now when Brazil is down 45% since 2011, or -25% since March 2013 doesn't do me any good at this point.

Where was this analysis 3 months ago?

Remember as you look at charts that are now extreme, emerging markets always bottoms first just as it tops first.

Emerging markets bottomed on October 27, 2008 while the S&P 500 went into March of 2009.  I have made too many inaccurate calls on a bottoming of emerging markets vs. domestic markets in this recent run of underperformance to be getting righteous about the current level being a table pounding moment, but of course I never thought we would hit the extreme of 2008.

We hit it last week. Emerging markets (EEM) have rallied almost 2.5% vs. SPY since Thursday and while no move like this can call a bottom of a trend, the charts have to be respected.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

This article appears in: Investing , Stocks
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