The J. M. Smucker Company
) is all set to unveil its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2012
results on June 7, 2012, before the market opens. The Zacks
Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is 99 cents per share
(year-over-year decrease of 1%). The Zacks Consensus Revenue
Estimate for the fourth quarter is $1.352 billion (year-over-year
increase of 14%).
For the fiscal year 2012, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is $4.69
per share (same as the prior-year), which exceeds the
company's guidance range of $4.60 - $4.65 per share. The Zacks
Consensus Revenue Estimate is $5.521 billion (year-over-year
increase of 14%), which also matches the company's guidance of $5.5
Third Quarter Overview
Smucker delivered third-quarter 2012 adjusted earnings of $1.22
per share, lagging behind the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.41 and
the prior-year quarter's earnings of $1.27 per share. The sluggish
results in the quarter were led by greater-than-anticipated decline
in the overall sales volume, despite robust sales growth.
Net sales in the quarter increased 12% year over year to $1.47
billion, due to pricing actions and the impact of acquisitions. The
Zacks Consensus Revenue Estimate was $1.50 billion.
Agreement of Estimates Revision
Over the past 30 days, only one of the 12 analysts providing
estimates on Smucker has revised the earnings estimates for the
fourth quarter of 2012, and the revision was in the downward
direction. Similarly, earnings estimates were revised in a negative
direction for the fiscal 2012 by one of the 10 analysts providing
estimates over the same period.
For the fiscal year 2013, 2 of the 12 analysts providing
estimates on Smucker have lowered their earnings estimate over the
past 30 days.
Recently, Smucker has slashed its packaged coffee prices by an
average 6% owing to continuous decline in green coffee costs.
However, coffee prices are highly volatile and are affected by
weather and pest damage and also from political decisions in the
coffee-producing countries. Moreover, the analysts might have
reduced earnings estimates with the company's announcement of
guidance cut. We thus expect a negative trend for the upcoming
quarter and year.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
The earnings estimate for the fourth quarter as well as fiscal
2012 has remained static over the past 30 days at 99 cents per
share and at $4.69 per share, respectively. For fiscal year 2013,
the earnings estimate has declined from $5.28 to $5.24 per share
over the past 30 days.
Smucker has surpassed earnings estimates in two of the last four
quarters. The company has recorded a maximum positive surprise of
3.70%, with a minimum of negative surprise of 13.48%. On average,
the earnings surprise was negative 3.73%.
Smucker, which competes with
), currently has a Neutral recommendation. The stock carries a
Zacks #3 Rank (a short-term 'Hold' rating).
STARBUCKS CORP (SBUX): Free Stock Analysis
SMUCKER JM (SJM): Free Stock Analysis Report
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