Pool Corp.
(
POOL
) is slated to report its first quarter 2012 results on April 19,
2012. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for first quarter
earnings is a penny per share, representing an estimated 157.2%
annualized growth.
Earnings Surprise
With respect to earnings surprises over the trailing four
quarters, Pool has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all
the quarters. The earnings surprise ranges from 3.48% to
87.50%, with an average of 24.93%. This implies that the company
has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by the same magnitude
over the last four quarters.
Fourth Quarter Recap
Pool Corp.'s fourth quarter 2011 loss per share of 21 cents was
narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 22 cents loss per
share and the year-ago loss of 24 cents. The outperformance was
mainly driven by solid top-line growth. Net sales in the reported
quarter jumped 12% year over year to $270.4 million.
Overall Base business sales of Pool improved 10% year over
year. Blue business sales increased 10% in the quarter, while
Green business sales were up 7.8%.
Gross profit grew 9.8% year over year to $80.8 million and gross
margin fell 60 basis points (bps) to 29.9%, attributable to Pool's
pricing discipline coupled with improvements in sales trends.
Guidance
For full-year 2012, management expects earnings per share in the
range of $1.69-$1.79. Pool anticipates sales growth in the
mid-to-upper single digits, including the impact of acquisitions
and the opening of new locations in 2012.
Earnings Estimate Revisions - Overview
Before the earnings release, we see a somewhat positive outlook
prevailing around the stock.
Agreement
Over the last 7 days period, 1 out of 7 analysts' estimate for
the first quarter moved north while there was no downward revision.
Of 8 analysts, 1 analyst also upped its estimate for full-fiscal
2012.
Magnitude
The magnitude of revisions for the forthcoming quarter increased
a penny over the last 7 days period. However, the estimate for full
year 2012 remained static at $1.75.
Our Take
We remain positive on the stock based on the company's strong
market position and earnings power. According to management,
earnings per share will grow at a rate of 20% per year for the next
five years considering a rational macroeconomic recovery. We
are also supportive of management's view and believe that the
company is experiencing an uptrend, even in its Green business,
which was once struggling. Since the first quarter of fiscal 2011,
the business is generating positive results. Management commented
that the market will slowly improve beyond 2012.
Pool Corp, which competes with the likes of
Johnson Outdoors Inc.
(
JOUT
) and
Golfsmith International Holdings Inc.
(
GOLF
), currently holds a Zacks #2 Rank (short-term Buy
recommendation).
GOLFSMITH INTL (
GOLF
): Free Stock Analysis Report
JOHNSON OUTDOOR (
JOUT
): Free Stock Analysis Report
POOL CORP (
POOL
): Free Stock Analysis Report
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