Exelon Corporation
(
EXC
), a utility services holding company, is scheduled to report its
third-quarter 2012 financial results on November 1, 2012.
Second-Quarter Recap
Exelon announced second-quarter 2012 operating earnings of 61
cents per share, lower than the year-ago figure of $1.05 per
share and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 63 cents per share.
The year-over-year decline in quarterly earnings were
attributable to an increase in the average diluted shares
outstanding due to the merger with Constellation, lower energy
margins at Generation, and higher operation and maintenance
costs. These were partially offset by fewer nuclear outage days
and the addition of Baltimore Gas and Electric's and
Constellation's results.
The company's total operating revenue for second-quarter 2012 was
$6.4 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 42%. Reported
quarter revenue missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.9
billion.
Third-Quarter and Full-year 2012 Guidance
Exelon expects its third-quarter 2012 operating earnings guidance
to be in the band of 65 cents - 75 cents per share. The company
reaffirmed its full-year 2012 earnings guidance range of $2.55 to
$2.85 per share.
Exelon expects to generate 219,600 Gigawatt Hour ("GWh") of power
assuming that its nuclear plants will achieve an average capacity
factor of 93.1% in 2012.
The company expects cash from operations in full-year 2012 to be
$5.37 billion and also forecasts the issue of new debts of $1.75
billion during 2012. Exelon hopes to retire $1.07 billion of debt
during the year.
Zacks Consensus
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2012 earnings is
72 cents per share, lower than $1.12 per share reported in the
prior-year quarter. Currently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for
the company's earnings ranges between 69 cents and 77 cents per
share.
For full-year 2012, the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $2.75
per share, lower than the prior-year earnings of $4.16 per share.
The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year 2012 ranges
from $2.70 to $2.80 per share.
Estimate Revisions Trend
Agreement
For third-quarter 2012, we have observed that no estimates have
moved either in the upward direction or in the downward direction
in the last 7 days. Over the last 30 days, 1 estimate has moved
upward whereas no estimate moved in the downward direction.
For full-year 2012, we have observed that none of the estimates
have moved either in the upward direction or in the downward
direction in the last 7 days. In the last 30 days, 5 estimates
have moved upwards whereas 3 estimates followed a downward trend.
Magnitude
In the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for
third-quarter 2012 earnings per share declined by a penny to 72
cents.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year 2012 earnings remained
unchanged at $2.75 per share in the last 7 days.
In the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year
2012 earnings per share rose by a penny to $2.75 from its earlier
projection of $2.74.
Surprise History
With respect to the earnings surprises, Exelon has topped the
Zacks Consensus Estimate in two quarters out of the last four
quarters. Over the last four quarters, the surprise ranges from
-6.82% to 4.94% with an average of -0.58%.
Our Recommendation
We believe that completion of merger with Constellation has
benefited Exelon's future operating and financial results,
including cost synergies, load and customer base.
In addition, Exelon continues with its investments to upgrade its
infrastructures, which will subsequently enable the company to
produce additional 420 million watts of carbon-free power in the
next five years. In the long term, the additional production will
benefit the company when Environmental Protection Agency
regulations come into effect in late 2014. The smaller units,
which fail to meet the environmental requirements, would be
forced to shut down and thus make way for Exelon to increase its
market share.
However, Exelon's pending rate cases and volatile commodity
prices continue to be challenges on the company's forthcoming
performance.
Exelon Corporation currently has short-term Zacks #3 Rank (Hold
rating).
Chicago, Illinois-based Exelon Corporation engages in the
generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity to
residential, commercial, industrial and wholesale customers. With
a market capitalization of $30.29 billion, Exelon has 19,267 full
time employees. The company competes with
Ameren Corporation
(
AEE
).
AMEREN CORP (AEE): Free Stock Analysis Report
EXELON CORP (EXC): Free Stock Analysis Report
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