) is scheduled to announce its second quarter fiscal 2012 results
on July 18, and we notice a single upward movement in analyst
eBay's first quarter 2012 earnings per share (EPS) of 48 cents
(excluding one-time items and stock-based compensation) beat the
Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5 cents on strong top-line growth, the
strengthening Marketplaces segment and solid payments business.
The company reported gross revenue of $3.28 billion, down 3.0%
sequentially but better than the Consensus expectation of $3.15
billion and its own guidance range of $3.05-3.15 billion, aided by
improved customer experience. Over 86% of eBay's total revenue was
transactions-based, while the remaining 14% came from marketing
The pro forma gross margin was 70.6%, up 66 bps sequentially and
down 105 bps year over year. The sequential increase was due to
lower transaction expense, partially offset by a slightly higher
transaction loss rate.
Second Quarter Guidance
eBay expects revenue of $3.25-3.35 billion (flat sequentially and
up 19.6% year over year at the mid-point), GAAP EPS of 49 cents to
51 cents and non GAAP EPS of 53 cents to 55 cents. The Zacks
Consensus Estimate is pegged at 48 cents.
For 2012, management expects revenue of $13.8-$14.1 billion, GAAP
EPS of $1.91 to $1.96 and non GAAP EPS of $2.30 to $2.35. The Zacks
Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.05.
Detailed earnings results can be viewed here:
Turnaround Story Continues at eBay
Agreement of Analysts
Only one out of the 17 analysts providing estimates made an upward
revision for the second quarter as well as fiscal 2012 in the last
The majority of analysts expect a decent second quarter with
earnings per share coming in line with the Street Consensus at 55
cents. They believe that strong eCommerce trends in the U.S. will
likely be offset by macro weakness in Europe and lower cross-border
trade activity due to weak euro currencies.
Hence, the analysts do not expect any upside to the full-year
guidance. However, they see continued traction in eBay's
Marketplaces business and continued online and offline share gains
in the PayPal segment.
The majority of the analysts expect PayPal to continue to drive
growth for eBay. They believe that PayPal is expanding its market
opportunity by aggressively enabling mobile payments and expanding
Point-of-Sale (POS) offerings. According to management, PayPal
expects to process $7 billion in mobile payments this year.
The analysts believe that the company's recent partnership with
VeriFone and Equinox, which are the #1 and #3 POS terminal
providers, will lead to long-term upside potential in offline POS
transactions and also pave the way for broad adoption by retailers.
However, a handful of analysts remain concerned about the relative
weakness in merchant Services total payment value growth due to the
continued negative impact of foreign currency and lack of recovery
in the rate of cross border commerce in eBay's market. They believe
that lower cross-border trading activity, foreign exchange
headwinds and weak gold prices could again impact eBay's U.S. gross
merchandise volume growth.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate increased a penny
each to 48 cents and $2.05 for the second quarter as well as fiscal
Over the 90-day period, the Zacks Consensus Estimate was up by 2
cents for the second quarter and 8 cents for fiscal 2012.
We expect eBay to report another good quarter with potential upside
from payments and remain impressed by its business strategy and
We believe that eBay's PayPal is well positioned for sustained
growth and the Marketplaces business is also showing signs of
improvement. Recently, the company expanded its offline
partnerships and announced that PayPal POS was gaining traction as
15 national retailers had agreed to accept PayPal as a payment
method. We believe that this would considerably increase PayPal's
addressable market going forward.
PayPal has also reinforced its mobile payments segment through the
PayPal Mobile Express Checkout system and Zong acquisition, which
are expected to boost mobile payment volumes.
However, we are concerned about the increasing competition from
major online retailers, such as
), as well as many other smaller players. Additionally,
) has been eyeing the online payment space, threatening eBay's
While eBay's payments business shows great promise, here too
competition may be expected to pick up as banks and other companies
announce their own payment systems and Google's digital wallet
AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis
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Currently, eBay has a Zacks #3 Rank, implying a short-term Hold