) is scheduled to release its fiscal second quarter 2013 results
after the market closes on August 23, 2012. In the run up to
the earnings release we do not notice any movement in the analysts'
estimates. However, Autodesk has a negative average earnings
surprise of 0.4% over the trailing four quarters.
Previous Quarter Highlights
Autodesk reported mixed first quarter results. The bottom line
of 36 cents (including stock based compensation) missed the Zacks
Consensus Estimate by 3 cents. However, the reported earnings
increased 12.5% from the previous-year quarter on the back of
revenue growth across all geographies and business segments.
The top line increased 11.4% year over year to $588.6 million in
the reported quarter and was slightly ahead of the Zacks Consensus
Estimate of $587.0 million. The year-over-year growth was driven by
improved performances from Manufacturing, and Architecture,
Engineering and Construction (AEC) business segments and strong
revenue from Suites.
For second quarter 2013, Autodesk expects revenues in the range
of $580.0 million to $600.0 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate
is pegged at $592.0 million. Management expects non-GAAP EPS in the
range of 46 cents to 51 cents.
For further details please read:
Autodesk Reports Mixed 1Q
Earnings Estimates Trend
Over the past 30 days, none of the five analysts covering the
stock revised their estimates in either direction. Thus, the Zacks
Consensus Estimate for the second quarter remained at 40 cents.
Analysts covering the stock expect revenue to be positively
impacted by the price rise and increasing mix of recurring
subscription revenue. The migration of AutoCAD customers from 2D to
3D will be incrementally beneficial for the company to drive
revenues. Moreover, the company's foray into the emerging economies
is expected to be the positive catalyst for Autodesk. However, the
sluggish macroeconomic environment remains the primary headwind for
the company in the near-term.
In our view, the company's innovations in 3D design technology
provide a competitive edge. Moreover, Autodesk's expanding product
portfolio and broadening industry and geographic reach will help it
sustain its longer-term growth strategy of providing high-volume,
lower-cost CAD software. We believe that this will likely drive
earnings going forward.
Moreover, the company's expanding cloud computing services
portfolio will expand its customer base going forward. The company
is also increasing its penetration in the mobile market by
developing software for smartphones and
) iPad. We believe that these initiatives will boost Autodesk's
top-line growth going forward.
However, Autodesk's high exposure to Europe (approximately 40%
of revenues) amidst the lingering financial turmoil in the region
keeps us cautious on the stock. Moreover, customer concentration
and increasing competition are the other headwinds.
We have a Neutral recommendation on Autodesk's shares in the
long term. Currently, Autodesk has a Zacks #3 Rank, which
translates into a short-term 'Hold' rating.
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