) is scheduled to report its fourth quarter 2012 results on Jan
23, 2013 after the closing bell.
Last quarter, the company posted a 16.78% positive surprise.
Let's see how things are shaping up prior to the
Growth Factors in the Last Quarter
Last quarter, higher revenues, cost discipline and a lower
share count contributed to the year-over-year increase in
earnings. While we are encouraged by the company's performance,
we remain concerned about Amgen's dependence on Prolia/Xgeva
(denosumab) for long-term growth. With several key products
expected to lose patent protection in the next few years, Amgen
has a lot riding on Prolia/Xgeva's successful commercialization
and label expansion.
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Amgen is
likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock
needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP (Read:
Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method
) and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or at least Zacks Rank #2
(Buy) or Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the
case here as you will see below.
Negative Zacks ESP
: This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at $1.37
while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is higher at $1.43. That is a
difference of -4.20%.
Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)
: Amgen's Zacks Rank of 3 however, increases the predictive power
of ESP. That said we also need to have a positive ESP to be
confident for an earnings surprise call.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our
model shows that they have the right combination of elements to
post an earnings beat this quarter:
), Earnings ESP of +1.35% and Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)
), Earnings ESP of +5.80% and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)
Onyx Pharma Inc.
), Earnings ESP of +19.05% and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)
AMGEN INC (AMGN): Free Stock Analysis Report
ASTRAZENECA PLC (AZN): Free Stock Analysis
ONYX PHARMA INC (ONXX): Free Stock Analysis
SANOFI-AVENTIS (SNY): Free Stock Analysis
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