Earnings Preview: Allergan - Analyst Blog

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Allergan, Inc. ( AGN ) is scheduled to announce its fourth quarter and full year 2011 results on February 2, 2012, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is $1.00 (year-over-year increase of 13.6%) on revenues of $1,408 million (year-over-year increase of 7.6%). This is just above the company's fourth quarter guidance of 97-99 cents per share.

As per the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for fiscal 2011, earnings are expected to be $3.64 (year-over-year increase of 15.2%) on revenues of $5,420 million (year-over-year increase of 11.0%). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2011 is at the high end of the guidance range of $3.62-$3.64 per share provided by the company.

Third Quarter Recap

Allergan reported third quarter 2011 earnings of 92 cents per share, a penny above the Zacks Consensus Estimate and a few cents above the guidance range of 88-90 cents. Earnings increased 17.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Third quarter revenues increased 9.9% to $1,328 million, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Specialty pharmaceuticals sales increased 10.1% to $1,089.7 million, with eye care pharmaceutical sales increasing 7.5%. Products like Lumigan and Restasis helped drive eye care sales. A detailed discussion of third quarter results is available here .

Agreement and Magnitude of Estimate Revisions

Of the 23 analysts following the stock, 1 analyst revised the fourth quarter estimate upward and 1 trimmed the estimate in the last 30 days. There were no revisions during the last 7 days. For full year 2011, 1 out of 25 analysts slashed the estimate in the past 30 days, with 1 upside revision in the same period. None of the analysts revised their 2011 estimates in the last 7 days.     

With no significant movement in estimate revisions, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2011 as well as the full year remains unchanged at $1.00 and $3.64, respectively.

Surprise History

Allergan has surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. The company recorded a minimum surprise of negative 1.12% in the fourth quarter of 2010 to a maximum of 4.05% in the first quarter of 2011. On an average, the earnings surprise stood at 1.55%. Fourth quarter 2011 earnings are expected to come in-line with expectations.

Our Recommendation

We currently have a Neutral recommendation on Allergan, which carries a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term Hold rating).


 
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , Business , Stocks

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