Commodities - Energy
Crude Oil Steady Ahead of U.S. Holiday
Crude Oil (WTI) - $91.07 // $0.33 // 0.36%
Commentary: Crude oil is little changed in overnight trade as
volume is light heading into the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on
Monday. There will be no settle until Tuesday's session when pit
trading resumes, but electronic trade remains open. WTI is holding
above $91, while Brent holds just under $99.
The Trans-Alaska Pipeline is tentatively scheduled to be
restarted later today, according to operator Alyeska. Approximately
95% of Alaska's 600,000bbl/d of production was shut-in due to a
leak in the line.
Technical Outlook: Prices have put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover
candlestick after retesting support-turned-resistance at rising
trend line set from the swing bottom in November, hinting the
upward correction has run its course and a move lower is ahead.
Initial support lines up at $87.33.
Commodities - Metals
Gold Bounces off Technical Support
Gold - $13 66 .00 // $3. 78 // 0.2 8 %
Commentary: Gold is rebounding after testing support near $1360
yet again. As we stated in our latest
Gold - FOREX Correlations report
, in order to see a sustainable decline in gold prices, we would
need to see a meaningful reduction in investment demand for the
metal. Preliminary signs of such a reduction are emerging. Gold ETF
holdings have plunged 1.2 million troy ounces since peaking near 68
million troy ounces back in December. They are now at the lowest
level since September, when gold was trading at prices more than
$100 lower than they are now. Keep in mind, however, that this is
by no means the largest drawdown in holdings during gold's 10-year
bull run. For instance, we saw a drawdown in excess of over 3
million troy ounces during 2008 (incidentally, there was a big gold
price correction during part of that year).
Technical Outlook: Prices followed a Bearish Engulfing
candlestick pattern below resistance at $1388.38, the 50% Fibonacci
retracement of the 1/3-1/7 downswing, with a break through support
at a rising trend line set from late October. Final confirmation of
a larger bearish reversal requires a daily close below $1361.39, an
outcome that would clear the way for a decline to the $1325-30
Silver - $28. 55 // $0. 07 // 0. 23 %
Commentary: Silver is little changed and seems to be following
price action in gold. ETF holdings have been more or less flat
during the last few months.
The gold/silver ratio rebounded to 47.8, remaining above the
four-year low near 46 set last month. (The gold/silver ratio
measures the relative value/performance of the two precious metals.
A higher ratio indicates gold outperformance, while a lower ratio
indicates silver outperformance)
Technical Outlook: Prices reversed sharply lower at the $30.00
figure, dropping back to horizontal support at $28.32. A daily
close below this level exposes $26.71. The $30.00 level remains as
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