The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing
intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any
prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their
direction tends to correlate with any
listed for each.
Crude oil met its outstanding target at Wednesday's high, and in a
very aggressive fashion. Extending higher without delay would start
to suggest a much more substantial rally underway. Meanwhile, the
natural reaction would be to at least back-and-fill down to recent
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to
efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid
stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live
intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at
Jun Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Slightly probing above Tuesday's high would have been optimal
before reversing down. Wednesday reversed down sharply anyway. The
rally's 83.33 target was not even attacked, so a little more
weakness Thursday is likely.
Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
A slightly lower low would have been optimal before trying to
reverse up. Wednesday reversed up anyway, already attacking the
decline's original target at 1.2955 as resistance. Extending higher
to close above 1.3020 Thursday would signal that a bottom had
Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Wednesday's third consecutive gap up was the first not to probe
well above the prior session highs. Much of the session ranged
around Tuesday's highs before dipping to fill the gap back down to
Tuesday's close. A spike up to fresh highs above 1264.00 on FOMC
minutes was retraced back to the spike's 1246.00 origin. Closing
negative would have been optimal for signaling both that buyers
were done and that sellers were already retaking control.
Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's ranging was choppy, and not at all trending, despite
the volatility surrounding it. Fresh lows should still be tested
before a rally effort can be very credible.
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Wednesday's slide to 133-30 reacted up on FOMC minutes, then
extended to fresh lows at 132-21, presumably on the way down to
128-10/128-14, so long as 133-04 holds as resistance.
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday extended up aggressively - spiking - fulfilling the
appropriate behavior if momentum to the rally's 106.35 target was
still intact. The target was met Wednesday afternoon up to 106.66,
with the prior two sessions' 103.30 "lower prior highs" now being
likely to attract price down for a test as support.
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:UNG, UNL)
A surge to fresh highs above Monday's 3.76 high before Wednesday's
open was retained only enough to produce a gap up to Tuesday's 3.71
high, which soon stumbled back to Tuesday's 3.66 close. A fresh low
first would have been likelier to extend higher intraday. Reaction
to Thursday's EIA report may continue to make that clear.